(Again) I Told You So

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It was nice having the S&P 500 and VIX trading pits back open.

Later in the week I’ll talk about the value added trading pits bring to the process in my Pit Report.

For today I want to take a look at bond prices.


If you want to know why the market rallied 80 points to end the day positive, the answer lies in the Fed.

Today the FOMC made it clear that they fully intend to buy investment grade corporate bonds.

Why do they need to do this?

That is your guess, I personally do not see it as needed…

Unless credit markets are WAY tighter than we realize.

Perhaps, that is the reason that despite all of the strength in bonds over the last week TLT IV is actually pretty firm.

Notice that on the rally from 154 back to 162, bond vol is not going away.

One has to wonder if there is more downside to bonds than many traders realize?

Regardless, if one wants bond exposure, with TLT IV at near 17%, a short put to get TLT exposure makes a lot of sense.

The August 150 puts are currently trading over $1.00, that is pretty meaty.

An alternative would be the Jan 140 puts at about $2.00, that is SUPER meaty given they are about 15% out of the money.

The VIX traffic light is green.


Mark Sebastian

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