When it comes to investing, time frame is everything.

The things that make a good day trade tell you nothing about how a stock will do a few weeks out. And the indicators that tell you a stock is a bad bet over the long-term don’t reveal a thing about how it might trade 10-days from now.

When you plan to hold a stock over many years, things like fundamentals matter a lot. But as the time frame gets shorter, a company’s P/E or earnings matter less and pricing patterns become more important.

Our resident chart expert, Licia Leslie, is highly aware of that fact.

She’s not afraid to bet against a stock considered a “dividend king.” 

Short-term price patterns are all that matter.

In today’s issue, she looks at two stocks in an uptrend and uses technical analysis to figure out which will keep going up and which is out of luck.

My Favorite Stock this Week

This week I’m going for the big kahuna!

I am choosing the Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ) for my choice to trade higher.

Let me tell you a bit about the QQQs.

It is an ETF that holds stocks across sectors like technology (54.42%), communication services (16.53%), consumer cyclicals (13.31%) with smaller allocations in healthcare, consumer defensive, and others.

The tech heavy top holdings are Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon.

I realize we are at all time highs but I believe the QQQs will trade up to my median line at $621.39:

Wednesday’s dip did manage to close above the 21 day moving average, as I always say, “The close is more important than the intraday.”

Thursday’s action contributes to the bullish argument with a nice big green candle entirely engulfing Wednesday’s candle.

This Week I Would Sell

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a global healthcare giant founded in 1886 by the Johnson brothers. It’s renowned for its “Credo” philosophy, prioritizing patients, physicians, employees, and communities. The company operates in two primary segments: Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals focusing on oncology, immunology, neuroscience, infectious diseases, cardiovascular/metabolism, and pulmonary hypertension) and MedTech (medical devices in areas like orthopaedics, surgery, vision, electrophysiology, and circulatory care).

JNJ employs over 130,000 people worldwide and is considered a dividend king, having raised dividends for 62 consecutive years.

Sounds like a good one for the portfolio, but for the short term I like it lower.

Here’s why…

Yes, JNJ has had a major run, almost non stop since June:

But two big things on this chart point to a short-term top.

First, Monday’s candle looks like a doji signaling a change in this uptrend with confirmation of the stock trading lower.

Second, the relative strength index is moving below 70 and the MACD oscillator is crossing bearish.

My price target is the median line at $189.14 and possibly the 21-day moving average at $187.18.

Trade Accordingly,

Licia Leslie

These moves are expected to happen within the next 5-7 days. 

And the best way to take advantage is by using options.

The big question is…

Will either one of these stocks become the “pick of the week” on Monday morning?

To get an alert before it happens, click here to join our free State of the Market newsletter.

Tomorrow, we’ll see what stock Andre Giovinazzi loves and which one he hates.

All the best,

Charles Delvalle

Managing Editor