Tesla Again, Plus a Bank I’m Fading

Hi Traders,

Best calls to buy this week: Tesla (TSLA), again!

Wednesday earned it.

The stock closed at $351.12, up 4.23 percent on 36.2 million shares against 27.9 million the session before. That's the highest close since July 22, and it broke a two-day slide.

Tesla's Unfinished Business From July

My price target is the 50-day moving average at $367.26.

Use a close below $349 as your stop loss.

Here's why that target matters: Tesla fell 14.52% on July 23 after second quarter earnings, on 115.6 million shares, and left a gap on the chart between $342.11 and $372.90. A gap is a price range where almost nothing traded, and price tends to come back through and fill it.

Wednesday's close is the deepest Tesla has pushed into that zone since the crash. My target sits inside it, right under the ceiling.

The news flow is helping. Tesla teased a Cybercab event on X Monday and told riders they could earn an invitation by taking a robotaxi before August 23. Cybercab is the two-seater built with no steering wheel and no brake pedal, and production started at Giga Texas earlier this year.

That's the whole story with this company now. Tesla still sells cars, and the Model 3 and Model Y still pay the bills, but nobody pays north of 170 times forward earnings for cars. They're paying for Austin, where driverless robotaxis have been running since January and went metro-wide in June, plus Dallas and Houston, which came online in April.

Fair warning: Wall Street isn't with me. The consensus rating is a Hold, 10 buys against 15 holds and three sells, and Nevada just approved 10 of the 5,000 robotaxi permits Tesla requested. I'm trading the chart and the event, not the story.

My fav for puts this week is JPMorgan Chase, which is topping out and rolling over.

JPMorgan's High Is Already Six Sessions Old

It just closed back below the median line (the center trendline of my channel, the level price falls back to when a trend runs out of steam) and it's heading to $349.44.

Wednesday's close was $357.26, down 1.65 percent, its worst session since July 29. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) opened at $363.01, never traded above $363.05, and finished near the low of the day. The S&P 500 closed up 0.24 percent that same session.

That's the part I want you to see. The largest bank in the country lost ground on a day the broad market gained.

The highs keep stepping down: $366.50 on August 13, then $365.90, $365.75, $363.57 and $363.05. That August 13 print was a 52-week high, and JPM hasn't come near it since.

Both the Relative Strength Index and MACD are bearish (two momentum gauges that measure whether buying pressure is building or fading), and the stock closed right at its 20 day moving average. Use a close over $359.34 as your stop loss.

The macro backdrop fits. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 this week, then backed off after the Treasury moved to expand its buyback support. Take the heat out of the rate trade and bank stocks give back the premium they picked up on the way there.

None of this is a knock on the bank. JPMorgan carries $5.0 trillion in assets with a 14.1 percent CET1 ratio (the capital cushion regulators require against losses), and second quarter net income hit $21.2 billion, with investment banking fees up 30 percent and equity trading revenue up 86 percent.

That's my point. This is a terrific company with a tired chart, and I trade the chart.

So which one does the crew pick for Monday's Ticker Highlight Show? Tap this link, pick your subscription rate, and get Monday's pick as soon as it hits.

Trade Accordingly,

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

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About the Author

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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