Dear Trader,
Andrew Giovinazzi made a call on Monday, before a single vote got counted, and by Wednesday afternoon the market had done exactly what he said it would.
I’m not going to spoil it here.
He’s hosting State of the Market today at 10 AM ET and he’ll walk you through what he saw, why he was willing to say it out loud with the whole country still arguing about yard signs, and what he’s doing with it now that it played out.
If you were at the event this week, you already know. If you weren’t, this is the part worth showing up for.
He’s bringing Gabe Oropollo along. The election hangover is just getting started, and today’s news gives them plenty to chew on.
Layoffs are quiet, but the hiring is all seasonal.
Oil is trying to find a floor after an 8% face-plant and nobody can agree on where the Iran war goes from here.
And the London Stock Exchange claims it can now tell you who’s actually behind the big trades while they’re happening, which should make every retail trader a little nervous.
Andrew and Gabe will cover all three. Grab a seat.
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The Daily News Breakdown
SIGN: Layoff announcements fell to their lowest October level since 2023, and the biggest hiring news out there is a pile of seasonal gigs. Challenger counted 43,994 announced cuts last month, down 71% from a year ago, and the year-to-date tally sits at its lowest since 2022. Andy Challenger calls it a low-fire environment, which translates to nobody getting fired and nobody landing a real job either. Amazon wants 300,000 holiday workers and UPS wants 100,000, all temporary. Food companies led the cuts with nearly 10,000, and tech added 5,600 more. Tech has now announced over 170,000 layoffs this year, already past its total for all of 2025. Calm on the surface, with a side of temp work and a steady trickle of pink slips for engineers.
SIREN: Oil bounced on Thursday after Wednesday’s 8% faceplant, and nobody can agree on where the Iran war goes from here. Brent climbed to about $96 and WTI to around $89 after both settled at their lowest since August 31st. The midterm rout has traders pricing in better odds the war ends, since fuel prices were a big reason voters punished Republicans. Citi sees it differently, warning the White House could lean on executive power and escalate. Eurasia Group trimmed the odds of new US strikes to 60%, cut the chance of a deal to 10%, and now puts a long standoff at 30%. If escalation happens, they see Brent at $110 to $125. Meanwhile the IRGC says two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and inventories in major consuming countries sit near 15-year lows.
SNEAKER: The London Stock Exchange says it can now tell you who’s behind the trades on the tape in real time, and not just which broker pushed the button. Its Trading Flow product, built with a shop called Exponential Technology, classifies every trade as institutional or retail as it happens. That matters because 13F filings, the official record of what the big funds own, show up as much as 135 days late. LSEG backtested 10 years of S&P 500 data and got 65.5% directional accuracy on predicting quarterly 13F changes, climbing to 71% on the signals it trusts most. Energy showed the strongest read. Retail flow scored 48.8%, so a coin flip. The bigger takeaway: the institutions are about to get an even longer head start on the rest of us.