Iran’s Real Strategy That Investors Must Understand

BY BILL GRIFFO 

March 23, 2026

 

Hey Income Hunters,

While headlines this past week have focused on the war and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a much deeper shift may already be underway…

One that will reshape the world order, currencies, commodities, and portfolios for years to come.

The Headline Everyone’s Misreading

Recent reports indicate:

  • Iran is negotiating with eight countries
  • Offering safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Only if oil is traded in Chinese yuan (CNY)

Analysts dismissed this idea because they believe countries can’t easily get CNY and that is technically true but it completely misses the strategy

The Hidden Mechanism: This Isn’t About CNY… It’s About Gold

Here’s the key insight:

China’s currency (CNY) isn’t freely tradable—but it is indirectly convertible through gold.

So the real transaction looks like this:

  1. A country sells U.S. dollars, by selling US Treasuries or Stocks
  2. Buys gold
  3. Sells gold to China → receives yuan
  4. Uses yuan to buy Iranian oil
  5. Ships oil safely through Hormuz

 In effect, Iran is pricing oil in gold—just with an extra step

This Is the Emergence of a “Petro-Gold” System

For 50+ years, global oil has been tied to the U.S. dollar (the petrodollar system).

Now, a parallel system is forming:

  • Oil priced in yuan
  • Settled via gold flows
  • Backstopped by China’s financial system

This creates what we can call: The Petro-Gold Standard

And it changes everything.

Why This Matters More Than the War Itself

The war is the catalyst, but the monetary shift is the story. Consider what’s already happening:

  • Iran continues exporting ~1.2M barrels/day, even as others collapse
  • Non-Iranian flows through Hormuz have plunged
  • Gold exports are surging globally (including from the U.S.)
  • Switzerland is funneling gold into the Middle East
  • China’s trade with oil exporters is rising in parallel

This system isn’t theoretical—it’s already forming.

The Big Loser: The U.S. Dollar

If oil begins trading outside the dollar system:

  • Global demand for dollars declines
  • Countries reduce reliance on U.S. financial infrastructure
  • Treasury demand weakens over time                                                                                             

 

And remember:

The U.S. just saw gold become one of its largest export categories
a sign it may already be settling trade imbalances with hard assets.

That’s not normal. That’s a warning. Look at the Dollar ETF (DXY) even in the face of a significant war the dollar has not been able to break out to the upside.

The Big Winner: Gold (Eventually)

In the short term:

  • Gold may face pressure
  • War-related liquidity stress can force selling

But if this system continues…

Gold becomes:
  • A neutral settlement asset
  • A bridge between currencies
  • A foundation of energy trade

 That’s structurally bullish… And not just mildly bullish…

Potentially explosive.

A Critical Turning Point: The Next 3–4 Weeks

Here’s what to watch closely:

If Hormuz disruptions persist:

  • Global shipping stress escalates
  • Credit markets tighten
  • Liquidity issues emerge 

And that’s when things flip:

What looks bearish for gold today
Becomes massively bullish very quickly

Because:

  • Trust in financial systems falls
  • Demand for neutral collateral (gold) surges                                                                                

 

The Bottom Line

This isn’t just a war story…This is a monetary regime shift in real time.

Iran’s strategy reveals something bigger:

The world may be quietly moving away from
“oil priced in dollars”…  toward “oil settled in gold.”

If that continues…

We’re not just seeing volatility, we’re witnessing the early stages of a new global financial order.

Stay Ahead, Not Behind

Most investors will react after this trend is obvious. By then, the biggest moves—especially in gold—will already be underway.

We’ll continue tracking this closely. Because if “Petro-Gold” becomes reality… It could be one of the most important investment shifts of the decade.

Stay flexible. Stay hedged. And don’t confuse “headline optimism” with an actual endgame.

Live and Trade With Passion My Friends

Bill Griffo

Bill Griffo

Head Income Trader

pit profits

See what's hot at option pit

CAPITOL GAINS: SMR Aug16 7 call closed for a 150% gain

DELTA STRIKE: VLY Mar15 8 puts closed for a 88% gain

PFE May17 26 calls closed for a 66% win

OP MENTORING: SPY Mar22/19 510 put calendars and 520 calls for 6.4% gain

OPTION SHOPPER: ERX Mar28 65 calls closed for a 90% gain

William Griffo

William Griffo

Share This Article

About the Author

William Griffo

William Griffo

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

Popular Posts

Categories

Stay Updated

Subscribe to our newsletter for daily trading insights

Upcoming Events

FOMC Meeting

2:00 PM EST

Earnings Season Begins

Pre-market

Options Expiration

Market Close

NFP Report

8:30 AM EST