BY MARK SEBASTIAN
March 4, 2025
Hey Traders,
In the last three days, the market has been down 95, up 92, then down 105.
Look at what has happened to 10 Day ATR in the last couple of days:
That is some ramp up in Movement.
Yet, as much as we are moving, options continue to remain cheap. A 23 VIX is pricing in about 1.5% movement a day for the next 30 days.
We moved up and down 3% on Monday.
This trend is from the 0DTE options we love to trade … and also why Voz made 175% on the Game Plan on Monday.
If you have not joined yet, you are missing out on some serious gains … and the launch pricing for an annual membership is about to go up.
First, Let’s Recap Monday’s Trade
We did manage to eke out a small win on Monday.
But I have to be honest: the market moved more than I even thought it might.
When I set up the trade, the fly I sent was 30 dollars out of the money to the downside. It closed out of the money to the UPSIDE at the end of the day.
The market at its lows dropped another 80 points from where I put the trade on:
At the end of the day, we ALMOST ended up slightly in the money. The print forced it out …
But hey – a win’s a win!
…Today’s Outlook
We could go in either direction.
There is a trend though. What happens in the morning has NOTHING to do with what will happen in the afternoon.
We are coming onto our fourth day in a row where the market made outside moves in the last 2 hours of the day.
That said, you could argue Monday was helpful:
A break of the 150 DMA and then a bounce.
We could make it all the way down to the 200 DMA at 5723.
A near-term low could potentially be the low for January 10th, which was 5805. That might be another place they test; we got within a couple of points of that.
The point is we could be moving in either direction; but until 1:30 p.m. ET, we don’t really have a grasp on direction. That said, we might have crumbs of a bottom forming.
But we did test a recent floor.
Call Ted if you aren’t currently a member – 888 872 3301.
Your Only Option,
Mark Sebastian
Mark Sebastian
Founder & CEO, Option Pit
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