What's up, Trader's Edge?

Monday's session delivered a crystal-clear message about where we stand. The Iran war is over. Maybe not the way we want, but it is over for markets. Despite the naval blockade and all the brinksmanship, markets are done caring unless we see a full peace deal or a complete return to carpet bombing.

(To watch Monday's video replay, tap this link.)

Let me show you exactly what I mean. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Friday, then gapped massively lower overnight when futures opened after the blockade announcement. But here's the kicker: the market started taking off within half an hour of the regular session opening. As Monday wore on, we saw more and more buying. This happened despite oil running higher.

That tells us the market has moved on. The war is now back of mind unless there's a major development.

SPX Sits 100 Points From All-Time Highs

The SPX now sits within about 100 points of its all-time high. I got to tell you, it's an impressive move to get there. We're back into that area of confusion we had before the Iran war began. This has been an absolutely stunning and spectacular rally coming out of the chaos.

With this rally, we've seen continued strength in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). Small caps are breaking toward a new all-time high through the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), sitting just about a buck away. Even the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is participating, though diamonds still have more work to do relative to the other indexes to make that next leap.

If you're looking for an index to play the catch-up trade in this rally, you could look at diamonds.

What's making me feel good is we're seeing bonds stabilize. They're starting to rally and hold this move above the 21-day moving average. But more importantly, there's the VIX.

VIX Term Structure Tells the Real Story

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed Monday at 19.12. At one point, it traded below 19. But what's most important is the futures term structure.

Here's where we were one week ago: VIX trading over 24 with what we call backwardation. You had cash near 26, then the next future lower, then the next one lower, and so on. Backwardation tells you the market is in chaos and turmoil. It doesn't fully know what's going on.

Here we are today. April expires Wednesday, but look at May and beyond. We're in what's called contango. Cash sits under the May future, under June, under July, and so on. When we're in contango, markets are generally bullish, systems start to work, and you can seriously start thinking about medium-term trades and swing trades.

Up until Monday, the best trades were zero DTE, one DTE, and six months out. Zero and one DTE remain great trades. Six months out still makes sense. But swing trades may really have an opportunity to excel here because we may be in for some two-to-four-day momentum moves.

Earnings Bonanza This Week

We've got a lot of earnings this week. Goldman Sachs (GS) reported Monday, but JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Tuesday before the bell. Bank of America (BAC) reports on the 15th. Morgan Stanley (MS) reports Wednesday morning.

Just about every major bank will have reported by tomorrow morning. Those are going to be an area to watch. They've definitely been under some pressure.

Intel: Your One Stock to Watch

My one stock to watch this week is a name that was dead for years. Look at the way Intel (INTC) just died, then look at the move it's made since September 2025, and look at the secondary move it's made recently.

Intel now trades at $65 a share. It's back up to over $300 billion in valuation. Folks, it's starting to catch up on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) again. That foundry business they're building is going to be a goldmine. It was worth the investment. Took forever, but worth the investment.

We're seeing a lot of action on the June 70 calls. At this point, I think Intel needs to take a breather because this move is borderline parabolic. But when it does, those June 70s or July 70 calls could make a lot of sense for a nice follow-up rally. Intel reports on the 23rd, so I'd want to be out of any long approach prior to those earnings.

Intel is your one stock to watch.

Your only option,

Mark Sebastian