Yo, Pit Crazies,

The latest CPI number is out next Thursday and there may be some interesting trading going into that release.

That was not the case yesterday. VIX was not at all interesting – down on the day, in fact – even as Big Tech made new low numbers.

Alphabet Inc. (Ticker: GOOGL) is off 20% in just the past few weeks. When looking for how far markets can go down, a lot of that has happened already.

What is VIX saying into the midterms?

VIX Is Looking for A Slowdown in Realized Vol

The contango curve – spot prices lower than futures – means VIX is looking for a slowdown in market activity, known as realized volatility.

There is an election and CPI next week, but vol is voting for lower realized vol into Thanksgiving. The front end of the VIX curve lower means short term IV expectations are lower. Less vol, less move.

I think the biggest reason is that the sharp rally catalyst is gone. The Fed is now 6-for-6 staying the course on rate hikes.

Traders can figure out the Fed is not going to change until the data changes.

I’m looking for a lower VIX by next Friday, 23 or so.

The Rundown

NitroTrader

Mark closed a Canejo Corp (Ticker: CCJ) Nov. 18 23/26/29 call butterflies closed for a 106% gain 

Power Income Trader

Bill closed the SPDR KBW Regional Banking Index (Ticker: KRE) Nov. 18 63/61 put verticals

closed for a 47% gain and some SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) Nov. 11 370/360/350 put

flies closed for a 23% gain.

To Your Trading Success,

AG