We are on a road to nowhere, but not for long

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

June 23rd, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

 

And there it is, the White House gives the green light to strike nuclear facilities, and Iran retaliates by hitting bases in Qatar. For now, Tehran is calling it even. Is this a signal for de-escalation? It seems that way. Iran has been significantly weakened—its capabilities halved, with no effective control over its own airspace. Like a wounded badger, it’s still dangerous, but far less lethal.

 

The key takeaway is this: there’s less and less appetite for Iran’s brand of regional aggression among the Gulf States. Most are now focused on growing tourism and serving as havens for European expats. Despite the weekend’s violence, markets opened flat, dipped briefly, then rallied strongly after Iran signaled it was done—for now.

 

So where do we go from here, with the market seemingly stuck at 600 on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY)?

 

Do we stay on this road to nowhere—or is it time to take the path less traveled?

 

VIX was 16.20 before all this Iran action 

If this trend continues, it’s hard to see how the VIX doesn’t return to the 16 range in short order. As for equities, all-time highs could be within reach—potentially as soon as this week.

Why? A 90-day tariff reprieve, Iran signaling surrender, or—imagine this—Congress doing something useful? At this point, almost anything could be a catalyst. After all, the threat of World War III didn’t trigger a selloff.

 

If markets aren’t reacting to bad news, it may only take a spark of good news to ignite a rally in SPY.

 

I don’t make the rules—I just follow them. Expect the VIX to break out of Zone 3 and head into Zone 2 this week.



To Your Trading Success,

 

 AG

Andrew Giovinazzi

30-Year Trading Pro

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Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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