Dear Trader,
Kevin Warsh steps up to the Jackson Hole podium this morning, and this is the first time he's had to stand in front of that room as Fed chair.
The bar he has to clear is low.
All anyone wants is an explanation of what he was doing in July, when he pointed at rising long yields like they were part of the plan and then declined to say much else. Three officials dissented at that meeting.
Inflation's been running above target for six years. Fed funds futures now put a 35% chance on a hike in September.
So today's speech matters more than the usual Jackson Hole word salad.
Mark, Andrew and Tim go live at 10 AM ET to position around whatever he says.
Below are the three stories worth reading first: Warsh's setup, Marvell getting punished for a beat-and-raise, and the two events next week that decide whether this rally holds.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech Friday, and the only thing anyone wants is a plain explanation of what he meant in July. At that press conference he kept pointing at rising bond yields like they were doing him a favor, which pushed long rates higher and left everybody guessing at the plan. Former Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan wants him to walk through the July decision. Deutsche Bank's Matt Luzzetti wants a cleanup, pointing out that Warsh still won't commit to PCE (the inflation gauge the Fed has steered by) as the official yardstick. Good luck. He's argued that forward guidance locks the committee into bad decisions, so saying less is the whole strategy. Inflation's been above 2% for six straight years.
SNEAKER: Marvell (MRVL) posted a record $2.74 billion quarter, raised its fiscal 2028 target to roughly $18 billion, flashed a Google deal worth as much as $12.2 billion in shares, and got hit for 8% in the premarket anyway. Revenue grew 37% year over year. Data center sales hit $2.17 billion, up 46%, and third-quarter guidance came in at $3.15 billion against a $3.03 billion consensus. So what went wrong? Management gave almost no detail on how the Google business shows up in fiscal 2028, and gross margin guidance dipped roughly a point because custom AI silicon carries thinner margins than the standard stuff. When a name is up triple digits on the year, beating by a penny doesn't cut it.
SIGN: Next week hands the rally two tests: the August jobs report on September 4 and Broadcom's (AVGO) quarter on Wednesday. Economists are looking for 45,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment after July came in at a surprise loss of 23,000. Fed funds futures put a 35% chance on a rate hike in September, which is the number worth sitting with. A hot payroll print with strong wage growth pushes that higher. Meanwhile the S&P 500 sits within 1% of its August 13 record and the VIX is parked near its low for the year. Volume all week ran well under the 2026 average. Nvidia (NVDA) already guided to 70% revenue growth for next fiscal year, so Broadcom has a bar to clear.