BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 16th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
Do you remember when President Donald Trump said it was a good time to buy stocks? The chart below marks the moment that tweet was posted — and right after, the market surged.
SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) 6 month chart
Today, President Trump floated the idea: ‘Should I fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell?’ The market reacted swiftly — here’s what happened:
SPY 5 Day Chart
It was, quite literally, a V-shaped rebound. Which leaves me with one simple question:
How should I approach the next tweet?
Follow what Pres Trump says he is going to do
No one believed that President Trump would actually impose the major tariffs — but he was clear from the start. It was never a ‘maybe,’ and he followed through. Now, he’s giving countries time to strike trade deals before August 1. While he may extend the deadline again, it’s likely that at least some tariffs will be implemented.
Right now, the August 20 VIX future — the contract most sensitive to the tariff situation — continues to climb week after week. Despite a rebound in stocks and low realized volatility, VIX futures are still rising. Sellers are scarce.
President Trump has made it clear he intends to impose tariffs on major trading partners — and so far, he’s followed through on what he says. The VIX futures market seems to be taking him seriously. I expect volatility to stay elevated until August 1, after which we could see a sharp drop, depending on how events unfold. Like it or not, when Trump signals action, he tends to deliver.
Like it or not, that’s the market we’re in. If you want to see someone navigating it with precision, be sure to check out Hans tomorrow.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
