This is the market indicator you are not watching but you should be

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

February 21, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

I got stopped out on some Weekly Profit Cycles S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) puts today. It was a good stop since they were up money but I was looking for a little more but decided the gain was worth it on this two way trade.

Given the recent volatility in SPY I would think SPY is going somewhere. Well it has not really gone anywhere lately. It has moved up and down on some of the bigger headlines since Jan 27 but mostly has wanted to get to all time highs.

3 month SPY Chart with 1 day candles

What the casual viewer can not see is what is happening under the sheets. There is a surprising market trend in all this action.

Let’s overlay the 10 day realized volatility over SPY

10 day realized volatility has not been this low since December. Let me explain. Realized volatility is the close to close pricing that ignores the intraday move. So SPY can be down 2% and rally 2% to close even on the day realized volatility will be 0%. 10 day realized volatility is the average over the last 10 days.

Right now it is at the lowest level of the year. Essentially, no selloff sticks.

SPY with 10 day realized volatility highlighted

Right now that is the biggest tell for me on what to expect for SPY. Stocks might go down intraday but do not hold a selloff. That is a recipe for higher SPY prices and a lower VIX.

That is a trade we are set up for in Weekly Profit Cycles. Check it out.

To Your Trading Success,