BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
August 8th, 2025
That’s quite a claim.
I wouldn’t be surprised if President Trump responded with a tweet threatening tariffs on Madagascar for not playing along. While the tariff game is serious, what’s even more critical is the interest rate environment and the massive U.S. government deficit—something Congress seems unwilling to confront.
Much of the increase in spending since 2020 stems from large transfer payments to states and expanded federal benefits introduced during COVID.
Conveniently, Congress has failed to roll many of these back.
We’ve seen some movement under the BBB, but nowhere near what’s needed. Traders initially panicked at the first spike (top arrow) yesterday, but sentiment improved by the second, resulting in a solid 8-point round trip in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY). Treasury auctions have suddenly become a market-moving factor and are definitely something to watch going forward.
This all-or-nothing trading style is making a significant impact on the volatility landscape.
Here’s how I’m approaching it.
Trading from a Value is Always Helpful
Right now, my Ripzone Dashboard is flashing green across the board. It’s signaling that VIX futures are extremely overpriced. While that doesn’t guarantee the VIX itself will drop, it’s a strong indication that VIX futures are likely to decline before expiration. I plan to use that insight to position trades on Monday.
I’ve been using variations of this sheet to help price volatility products for the past 10 years. If the VIX stays at or below 17, these vol products are facing steep losses—see the highlighted area above.
Meanwhile, Mark is using an AI algorithm to identify stocks that are poised for a breakout—see below.
I’ve built front-end systems for market making and helped design 3D trading software, in addition to creating the Edge Hunter sheets we use in the Pro version. I even contributed to a risk management program nearly 30 years ago. At the end of the day, it all comes down to having a solid number—and understanding its origin.
Right now, there’s a significant edge in the VIX futures, and that’s the trade I’ll be presenting to students on Monday.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
