BY MARK SEBASTIAN
April 9, 2024
CPI is the most important event this month.
It is going to set the trend for interest rates….
Right now the long bond is teetering on breaking down.
As bonds go…so goes the overall market…
SPX closed down a touch under 2 points on Monday…volatility of options stayed bid:
Notice that where vol stopped appears to be the bottom of the up trend we have been in for vol
So what exactly is the market expecting on Wednesday…lets look at the straddle:
The S&P 500 is pricing in as I write this about 50 points…less than 1%
To me…that seems really cheap.
Going out to the 18th you can see markets getting more concerned.
The April 18th ATM straddle, which because of forward value lands at 5215 is almost 90 points.
A week ago this same straddle was less than 70 points…something has changed.
Futures term structure remains looking for a move:
April is sitting on top of the cash…and the May future is barely over…
This is a market that is looking for a move..
Let’s look at the S&P 500 stock chart one more time:
While I am not long term bearish I think we have one of these coming:
The S&P 500 is going to dip, 100% below the 21 and probably the 50….at 5000…I become interested.
You know what’s about to be high? UVXY – because it is reverse splitting. I’m going to be doing a trade that I put 1000 dollars in and I am going to double it without touching it.
Want to join me? Join 0DTE April and you get this trade for free. Sign up here or call Ted 888-872-3301.
Your Only Option,
Mark Sebastian
Mark Sebastian
Founder & CEO, Option Pit
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CAPITOL GAINS: SMR Aug16 7 call closed for a 150% gain
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