BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
September 3rd, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
The week kicked off on a high note—I closed my first trade for Licia’s challenge with an 84% gain! Hot diggity! Having the ability to buy puts really pays off once the market decides it’s done climbing.
As of yesterday, we’ve officially erased the ‘JPow gap’ from when he signaled potential rate cuts. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) is down about $15—not a huge move, especially considering a single judge just overturned four months of hand-wringing over tariff policy.
SPY 20 day chart
It also casts doubt on the stability of U.S. finances—enough to make me focus on a chart I don’t usually pay much attention to.
Let’s take a look.
“Money is running from the dollar”
One of my students mentioned this yesterday: money is flowing into the SPDR Gold Trust (Ticker: GLD). Meanwhile, China, India, and Russia appear to be aligning in defiance of the U.S. The Trump administration wants to see an end to the Ukraine war, but Russia disagrees—and China and India seem willing to back that stance. Trade policy hasn’t exactly calmed down either—it’s been chaotic since late February. A parabolic move in GLD is rarely a good sign for the broader economy.
GLD 20 day chart
A gold rally signals rising inflation—the last thing elected governments want to see. It suggests they’re overspending beyond their means, and that the gravy train may be nearing its end. GLD is flashing a warning: we’re headed down that path. It’s fixable, but it won’t happen without real effort.
Congress is out, Trump made an attempt but may be short $500 billion in revenue—that surprise was as nasty as it was unexpected. I’ve been holding long positions in VIX and VXX calls, and I’ll likely keep them through Wednesday. Once again, we nearly hit Zone 1, but it came down to a single judge’s ruling.
I’m expecting SPY to trade flat to slightly down leading up to the rate announcement. Without any positive surprises, we’re likely back in ‘sell the rally’ mode.
To Your Trading Success,
AG