BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 19th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
Wondering why stocks are rallying?
Is it the BBB? Nope.
Earnings? Not quite.
The Federal Reserve? Think again.
Hans broke it all down Thursday night – you can watch the full replay here.
After spending the first half of the year stuck in a sideways grind, the market is finally making a move—and tech is leading the charge. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (Ticker: SMH) is up nearly 70% from its lows.
Remember when I told my students to nibble? Buy a little every week?
That fire sale is starting to pay off.
SMH 6 month chart
That’s often the best time to buy broad market ETFs—when it feels the hardest. Even when I feel like hiding under my desk, I still make a point to hit the buy button a few times a week. Tech and growth are clearly leading the charge, but I believe the volatility that rocked markets in March and April is starting to fade.
This is how I see things playing out from here.
The market believes Trump won the trade war
You think it’s the BBB? It passed—and yes, it’ll stimulate.
Earnings? Shaping up strong.
The Fed? JPow’s holding the line like Chamberlain at Little Round Top
President Trump is pushing for 10–15% tariffs as a way to make other nations contribute more—both for access to the largest consumer market in the world and for the cost of collective defense. For decades, Western nations have operated under the protection of the U.S. defense umbrella, but few wanted to pay for it. Now, the message is clear: contribute more, or face something worse.
I’ve always believed that price is the best signal—and when markets hit all-time highs, it means investors have real confidence. As long as they can see the future with some clarity, they buy.
I saw it firsthand as a floor trader for years.
There’d be stretches of zero volume, then suddenly the public would come roaring back—and more often than not, they were right. I remember scribbling down paper tickets faster than anyone around. It got so hectic I needed a clerk just to keep up, taking the other side of broker orders. From zero to 100, like a Tesla off the line.
Right now, stocks are gearing up to rally into earnings season, driven by AI growth that—as Hans explained on Thursday—is beyond anything we’ve seen before. After August 1st, the lid could come off entirely as investors realize President Trump may have gotten exactly what he wanted all along.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
