BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 11th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
In characteristic fashion, President Trump announced steep new tariffs, threatening a 35% duty on Canadian goods unless trade negotiations accelerate. He issued a similar warning to Brazil, citing their continued legal actions against former President Bolsonaro.
SPY 5 Day Chart
That one-two tariff punch sent the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) tumbling… all the way back to where it was Wednesday morning.
Try catching the intraday swings—this market isn’t done with surprises just yet.
Let’s see if we are moving past the tariff shocks already.
SPY Straddle Prices are going down 30 days out
Think of a straddle—a call and a put with the same strike and expiration, in this case 30 days out—as buying time. At the start of the week, the 30-day SPY straddle was priced at $20.00. Now it’s down to $18.50. In other words, the same amount of time is getting cheaper. Even with the latest Tariff Bomb making headlines, SPY straddle prices are still falling.
VIX futures curve for Jul09 and Jul11
The VIX futures curve dropped just fractionally over the last couple of days. Even with the hint of a Weekend Tariff Bomb traders are passing by the announcements. This is also setting up the Aug01 date as a great VIX selling opportunity. If the market really ignores the latest pronouncements, it will rush ahead a bit to short the current VIX level.
The VIX futures curve has dipped only slightly over the past few days. Even with hints of a potential Weekend Tariff Bomb, traders seem largely unfazed, brushing off the announcements. This lack of reaction is setting up August 1 as a potentially strong VIX selling opportunity. If the market continues to shrug off the latest pronouncements, it may accelerate its move to short the current VIX level.
As long as SPY realized volatility stays in single digits, VIX should feel the weight.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
