BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
September 5th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
I’m not sure whether President Trump will replace the current head of the BLS, but the latest jobs report shows only 22,000 new hires for the month.
Despite over 7 million job openings, that doesn’t mean much if hiring isn’t happening. Early in the trading day, markets reacted positively—SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) hit an all-time high—only to reverse quickly, dropping about 1% from the peak.
Is this a preview of what’s to come next week? Another repeat of the same pattern?
Let’s find out.
Events Stop Time
The FOMC is set to announce its decision on interest rates on September 17th. With the job market showing signs of slowing, a rate cut seems likely. But traders are already anticipating this, which means the real market move could come from any surprises. Much like during earnings season, market makers are keeping option prices elevated, expecting increased volatility leading up to the event—and a significant move afterward.
In the meantime, anything can happen. VIX options probably won’t lose much value leading into the FOMC, but the VIX itself could either crash afterward or spike sharply if the Fed surprises by holding rates steady. I’m expecting a “free ride” scenario—that’s what I told my WIC members today.
The real opportunity for easy profits comes if there’s a surprise move in SPY before then.
The end of this week is shaping up just like last week’s—so buckle up!
To Your Trading Success,
AG