Dear Trader,
Mark's going live with Tim this morning, and they've got plenty to chew on.
The 10-year just hit a yield we haven't seen since 2007, Wall Street is laughing off Anthropic's plea to slow down AI, and oil keeps climbing while Saudi Arabia's main workaround pipeline sits offline.
All three stories point at the same room: the Fed meets tomorrow, and futures have a hike priced in.
Mark and Tim will start breaking down what that means for the tape and how they'd position ahead of it.
Then Andrew takes the mic at 1PM for his own look at the market.
Register here to catch Andrew live.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: The 10-year Treasury yield just tagged 5.04%, a level it hasn't seen since 2007. The 30-year touched 5.39% before both eased off. The move lands one day before the Fed meets, and futures have a quarter-point HIKE priced at 92%.
Oil above $100 keeps inflation stuck over target, and bond buyers want to get paid for holding paper from a government that runs a deficit every year. The rest of the world caught it too, with rates in Japan, the UK and Germany all climbing, and some strategists think the yen carry trade is unwinding on top of that.
One BMO strategist said yields this high could stick around a while. Mortgages, corporate debt and every AI data center loan price off this number.
SNEAKER: Wall Street heard Dario Amodei beg the AI industry to slow down and answered with a shrug. Chip stocks dipped Monday after the Anthropic CEO went public, with Sam Altman and Elon Musk nodding along. D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria didn't buy it, saying nobody's slowing anything and the plea smells like incumbents asking for regulation to keep competitors out.
The spending backs him up. Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped $293 billion in capex in the first half of 2026, with Meta up 58% quarter over quarter, and the four sit on pace for nearly $600 billion this year. Trump waved off guardrails too.
Luria's kicker: if they overbuilt, they'll sit on the capacity and watch cash flow jump.
SIGN: Oil climbed almost 2% Tuesday, Brent to $107.55 and WTI to $103.27, after the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia again. Friday's attacks, which Riyadh pins on Iran-backed fighters in Iraq, knocked out the East-West pipeline. That pipeline moves roughly 4 million barrels a day, about 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea and around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz itself saw four commodity vessels pass Monday, down from 10 the day before, on a route that carried a fifth of the world's oil before the war started in February. Saudi buyers say the kingdom could run out of exportable crude within days if the pipeline stays down.
Pair it with the yield story above and the Fed's box gets smaller.