Dear Trader,
Three stories landed before the bell, and they're all arguing about the same thing: the price of money.
Mortgage rates climbed to a one-year high because the bond market stopped taking the Fed at its word. Hiring came in soft while pay for anyone willing to switch jobs ran hot. And SpaceX spent six times more on AI last quarter than the AI business brought in.
That's risk getting repriced in three places at once, and none of them agree on the answer yet. Mark and Voz go live today to sort out which one actually moves your positions.
Read the three below, then bring your questions.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: Mortgage rates just hit 6.81 percent, the highest in a year, and buyers noticed. The contract rate on a 30-year loan rose five basis points in the week that ended July 31. Purchase applications fell 3.6 percent to a five-month low. Refis slid 1.9 percent, the worst since mid-2025.
Rates bottomed in late February at 2022 levels, right before the Iran war lit up energy prices and inflation worries. Then the Fed held steady and Kevin Warsh spent his presser making investors wonder whether two percent is still the goal. Bond yields answered. Mortgages track the 10-year, and the 10-year just touched its highest level since early 2025.
SNEAKER: Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, well short of the 65,000 economists wanted and a long way down from June's 95,000. Education and health services did most of the hiring. Leisure and hospitality shed 11,000 jobs as the World Cup wound down.
Here's the wrinkle: pay for job-switchers jumped seven percent, the fastest annual pace since last August. Weak hiring plus hot pay for the people who move isn't a clean slowdown story. It's a labor market that's picky, not dead. The Labor Department's official count lands Friday, with 80,000 penciled in.
SIGN: SpaceX (SPCX) filed its first quarterly report as a public company, and the rocket business took a back seat. Revenue hit $7.8 billion, up 92 percent from a year ago and well past Wall Street estimates. AI revenue more than tripled from the first quarter to $2.6 billion.
Then the other number: SpaceX spent $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure last quarter, more than six times what the segment brought in. That's over 86 percent of total capital spending, up from $749 million a year earlier. By conventional accounting the AI unit still lost $1.3 billion from operations. Shares rallied nine percent Tuesday, then dropped more than 10 percent premarket.