BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 23rd, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
Hans called it — the AI-adjacent theme is on fire as traders fuel the next leg of this bull market. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) is off to a roaring start this week, smashing through all-time highs.
SPY below 500? That’s ancient history. We’re now eyeing $640.
Back in late April, SPY was trading just under $540. Fast forward to now — we’re up more than 10%.
Think AI is dead? Think again.
Worried about trade wars? The market clearly isn’t.
But there is something that cares — and it matters.
VIX is making new lows for the 3 month period – SPY is making highs
I’m showing both SPY and VIX together because they typically move in opposite directions — when one rises, the other usually falls. Seeing them go in opposite directions is a good sign that the move is real.
What I like to see is SPY moving higher while VIX drops. Today was the first time in a while that a modest move up in SPY triggered a significant drop in the VIX. That kind of action — SPY up, VIX down — strongly confirms the rally in SPY. It’s a clear sign of growing investor confidence.
VIX 3 Month chart
SPY 3 Month Chart
President Trump announced some trade deals — and, in his words, they’re “big and beautiful.” To me, it looks more like the usual market connections falling back into place. The Aug 1 “Trade Deal Vol Bomb” just moved one step closer to going off. Let’s see if the VIX can punch a crater into the ground.
Stay tuned — Alphabet Inc (Ticker: GOOGL) and Tesla Inc (Ticker: TSLA) are reporting earnings tonight. In this morning’s SOTM event, GOOGL looked strong based on the trading activity, but TSLA seemed kind of flat. That’s the way I’m leaning going into their reports. Mark will be talking about it live at 4PM ET — you can join him here.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
