BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
September 4th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
One week into Licia’s Challenge and I’m up overall—1 win, 1 loss, and hungry for the next opportunity. When I land on a strategy that works, I stick with it—so come along and take the challenge with me.
The latest ADP number came in surprisingly low—well below what economists were expecting:
Is AI to blame? The housing market? The end of the post-COVID boom?
It’s likely a mix of all three, especially with the U.S. government hitting the brakes on hiring. Without Uncle Sam adding jobs, the overall picture looks weak. Given all the upheavals this year, the fact that we’re still seeing any job growth at all feels like a minor miracle.
Anecdotally, there are job openings everywhere here in Maine—I can’t drive into town or hit the highway without seeing signs for semi-skilled labor. For my students reading this, let me know in class if you’re noticing the same thing.
The JOLTS report still shows a massive 7 million open positions, but companies are struggling to find qualified candidates. From what I’m hearing, one of the biggest hurdles is cannabis use—many applicants just can’t pass a drug test. It’s an issue that doesn’t get enough attention, and it’s also keeping more people on government assistance, adding to public spending.
One of my go-to indicators still isn’t lining up the way I’d like, and that’s going to heavily influence how I trade over the next two weeks leading into the FOMC meeting on the 17th.
Let’s take a look and see what I’m watching closely.
Let’s take a look.
Vol of VIX is stubbornly high
We could see some relief from the elevated VIX after Friday’s NFP report—but honestly, I don’t think it’s likely. It should ease, but the looming FOMC meeting on September 17th is casting a bigger shadow.
Meanwhile, VVIX is still hovering around 100, and stocks are sitting near all-time highs—which doesn’t add up. Typically, high stock prices attract more willing option sellers, but that just hasn’t been the case lately.
VIX 20 day with Sigma Vols for Sep, Oct, Nov
Looking at the chart above, VIX volatility continues to climb—even as stocks push higher. That’s usually not a sustainable path for either one. Markets have been rallying on hopes of a rate cut since last week, and they’ll likely keep riding that wave until we get some concrete data.
I’m expecting choppy price action leading up to September 17th. After that, one of them—either VIX or SPY—is likely to take a hit.
To Your Trading Success,
AG