Yo Pit Crazies,

The dollar is collapsing, gold and bond yields are flying, and the U.S. government might shut down.

Oh, and one more thing: stocks are a whisker from all-time highs.

Check out the snap below:

That’s right, into the end of the day, stocks traded near all-time highs. I cannot script this any better. Several ancillary indicators are screaming sell, sell, sell, yet stocks go up and buy, buy, buy.

The QQQ Is Full of the Mag 7

Think Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA), with Broadcom (AVGO) tossed in for the Great Eight. Those stocks held up the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) for three years as investors bought the AI boom. In the last few months, some of the money has gone to other places. AMZN was mostly flat for 2025, META too. AAPL is back to December 2024 levels. 

On Tuesday, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up near 1%. The QQQ is the new flight-to-safety trade. Investors jump into the risk-off trade when they get the tingles up their spines, and that trade is the QQQ going into this Friday’s earnings for MSFT and AAPL.

VIX Up, SPY Up

Stocks are following a similar pattern as the last shutdown. Stocks stayed firm, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and market volatility would not fall. That led to short-term gains in stocks once the shutdown was in force. 

Frank Gregory, my US Rare Earths (USAR) svengali, thinks that D.C. does not have the stomach for a shutdown again, as he sees some détente between the major players. I agree with him. VIX is not a sale yet, but I expect it to be by the end of the week. 

I had a little taste here today.

To Your Trading Success, 

AG