BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 29th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
Summer has finally arrived in Maine—it’s 85 degrees and a bit humid, which actually feels kind of nice. It’s a short week for me, though, as I’ll be off the island for the first time since May due to a family loss.
I’ll be heading to Cape Cod for my mother-in-law’s funeral. The last few years of her life, 4 p.m. became our unofficial “wine o’clock”—a small but meaningful ritual we shared while caring for her at home during her final six months. As dementia slowly took its toll, that 4 p.m. glass of wine remained one of the few consistent joys in her day. Remarkably, she held onto that routine right up until a week before she passed. You could’ve set your watch by it.
Marylou’s go to – RIP
It’s a big week all around. Mark is set to release his Short Squeeze Machine on Thursday. The Fed will weigh in on interest rates Wednesday. Tariff deadlines are looming on Friday. And earnings season is in full swing all week.
But honestly, the surest sign that summer has arrived isn’t just the weather…
It’s the way trading feels right now.
Trading Right Now is Very Low Liquidity
The steeper the VIX futures curve, the more room there is for VIX cash to move—while the futures themselves remain relatively anchored. Small gaps in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) are easily absorbed, since VIX futures are already trading at elevated levels.
As one student put it today: “Hurrying up to go nowhere.”
In the chart below, SPY’s realized volatility over the past 10 days is just 5%—that’s less than 0.5% per day on average from close to close. The market seems perfectly content going nowhere fast.
But instead, I have to ask—where’s the vol?
VIX Term Structure Jul 29, 2025
Until the big numbers hit, stocks and options are trading like the Jell-O mold—it looks firm on the outside, but the moment you poke it, it wobbles and gives way. Markets may appear stable, but they’re thin and fragile underneath—just like Jell-O. That’s the reality of trading right now.
I expect the market to firm up by the end of the week, though I’ll mostly be closing out positions. There may still be some solid opportunities for VIX shorts heading into Friday, especially with most earnings and data coming in better than expected.
Just remember—pressing on a Jell-O market can lead to more movement than you’d think. Right now, the path of least resistance is upward, so don’t be surprised if SPY finishes the week higher.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
