Yo Pit Crazies,

Mark and I hosted an event for 500 of our closest friends earlier this afternoon while Fed Jerome Powell went live with his .25% rate cut.

Here’s what stood out to me from JPow’s comments: So far, tariffs aren’t proving to be inflationary. The labor market, however, is under pressure from both sides—there’s a supply issue (less immigration, legal or otherwise) and a demand issue (fewer jobs being created). Meanwhile, housing shortages are hitting hard, especially in metro areas like Washington, D.C. Seriously—why does D.C. need that many houses? Could the immigration surge over the last 4–5 years be playing a role?

As usual, much of this traces back to political decisions. The border is finally acting like a real border, tariffs are generating revenue, but Congress keeps spending like the trough’s bottomless. Last summer, I visited the Virginia side of D.C., near Arlington—it felt like Beverly Hills in ’99. Back then, even millionaires felt poor walking those streets.

Of course, Powell said a lot more—and here’s how it’s going to trade.