Nvidia Inc (Ticker: NVDA) will need to save this market

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

February 25, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

The latest from D.O.G.E. is that we send foreign aid to China. Then they buy our bonds and we pay them interest on the money we give them. It is almost like someone made this up in a Mel Brooks movie. The money to Ukraine was a grant and nobody still knows how much we sent them. D.O.G.E is polling at very high levels as each daily nugget of US Government malfeasance comes to light.

However business confidence is in the tank as a result of the Tariff Tantrums of the last several weeks. Nothing really happened except folks are coming to the negotiating table and Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) is spending 100s of billions of dollars in the USA to make phones.

Below the data was not too good. Business activity is negative and bond yields are dropping. See below.

Is the market in panic mode?

Let’s check out my favorite indicator.

VIV9D is still under VIX

This means the market is still not nervous enough to pay for options. Traders are paying higher prices but not enough to bid up the short term, decaying options.

Right now the economic news feels like it will be bad until the sentiment changes. The early part of the month was rocky and tangible benefits from spending cuts that help the bond market have yet to materialize.

That is why the VIX curve is flat. Good NVDA news can propel stocks as can lower rates. However the Fed won’t be there to bail us out this time. The economy and Uncle Sam have to get it done. If they can, this will be a huge volatility selling opportunity. I will hit that in Trading Desk and Weekly Profit Cycles this week.