Hey Traders,

Yesterday was a booming day for markets.

They shot out of the gate higher, getting near a three percent gain at the peak.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shot up well past three percent at its high.

Neither index closed at the highs, but both closed strong.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to where it was at the beginning of March, when markets were still trying to figure out what was going to happen with oil.

It closed above the 50 DMA (the 50-day moving average, a key line that separates short-term strength from weakness) for the first time since February.

QQQ failed the 100 DMA, but that's a less important average. It's now above the 50 and the 200. This is its first real close above the 50 DMA since February 2nd.

Oil did back off.

The one thing I would've liked to see: more strength out of the bond market.

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), the seven to ten year bond fund, closed barely up 20 cents. That's not a small move in that boring ETF, but look at the way it backed off as the trading day progressed.

For the market to sustain any rally beyond a couple of sessions, it's going to need oil to keep dropping and the bond market to find a real bid. That connection matters: lower oil eases inflation fears, and a stronger bond market signals that rates aren't scaring away buyers.

I strongly believe the next 24 to 48 hours will be gumdrops and lollipops for the market. Next week is when reality sets in and this market's direction comes into focus.

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The Fertilizer Stock Everyone Forgot

Mosaic Corporation (MOS). The fertilizer company seemed to be the only producer to sit out the rally. Despite the selling on Wednesday, CF Industries (CF) has far outpaced the returns in Mosaic over the last few months.

If I get a whiff of any bullish flow in the options, I'm going to want to buy this stock.

One Name the Rally Left Behind

Apple (AAPL) is the stock market's safe haven right now. It was surprising to see the stock getting toasted on Tuesday, and despite the S&P 500 finishing up on Thursday, AAPL still closed down. It had a nice pop on Wednesday, but the stock is clearly losing favor.

I know I'm a hater, and I am, but this stock looks like a wealth destruction vehicle right now.