BY FRANK GREGORY
July 8th, 2025
Hey Influence Traders,
The OBBBA is a sweeping, pro-business, GOP-backed legislative package.
Key features include: expanded defense spending, deregulation, tax incentives for domestic manufacturing and mining, infrastructure acceleration, and curbs on ESG mandates.
Top 3 Financial Sectors Poised to Benefit
Defense & Aerospace
The bill includes substantial increases in defense spending, particularly around unmanned systems, hypersonics, AI, and cyber/electronic warfare.
Winners:
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (Ticker: LMT)
- RTX Corporation (Ticker: RTX)
- Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC)
- AeroVironment, Inc. (Ticker: AVAV)
- Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (Ticker: KTOS)
- Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (Ticker: RCAT)
Mining & Critical Materials
The OBBBA provides fast-track permitting and tax incentives for domestic mining of critical minerals (e.g., lithium, rare earths, platinum group metals).
Winners:
- MP Materials Corp. (Ticker: MP) – A U.S.-based producer of rare earth materials, operating the Mountain Pass mine in California
- Lithium Americas Corp. (Ticker: LAC) – A Canadian mining company developing the Thacker Pass lithium project in northern Nevada
- Freeport‑McMoRan Inc. (Ticker: FCX) – A major international metals and mining company, primarily focused on copper, with operations worldwide
- Hecla Mining Company (Ticker: HL) – The largest primary silver producer in the U.S. and Canada, also mining gold, lead, and zinc
Industrial & Infrastructure (Non-Green)
The bill boosts traditional infrastructure (roads, bridges, ports, power grid) while de-emphasizing climate restrictions, so construction materials (cement, aggregates), logistics, and industrial machinery firms should benefit from “Build America” tax credits without ESG compliance burdens.
Winners:
- Caterpillar Inc. (Ticker: CAT) – American manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, engines, and financial services
- Vulcan Materials Company (Ticker: VMC) – Leading U.S. producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel)
- Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (Ticker: MLM) – Supplies aggregates and heavy building materials to the construction industry
Eagle Materials Inc. (Ticker: EXP) – Manufacturer of building materials like cement, gypsum wallboard, and concrete-related products
Bottom 3 Financial Sectors Likely to Suffer
ESG Funds & Green Energy (Solar/Wind)
The OBBB includes rollbacks of ESG mandates, with clean energy incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are reduced or redirected toward nuclear or hydro.
Losers:
- SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (Ticker: SEDG) – Israeli manufacturer of DC‑optimized inverters, power optimizers, energy storage, and monitoring systems
- Enphase Energy, Inc. (Ticker: ENPH) – American company specializing in microinverter technology and home energy storage solutions
- First Solar, Inc. (Ticker: FSLR) – U.S.-based utility-scale solar module manufacturer, leading in thin-film photovoltaic panels
- Invesco Solar ETF (Ticker: TAN) – Exchange-Traded Fund tracking the MAC Global Solar Energy Index and investing in about 38 solar-energy–related companies
Why is Solar Running?
Despite the OBBBA, solar stocks have been moving up.
There are a few fundamental reasons why that is happening:
- Tax credits mostly preserved in recent budget bills – despite initial fears that solar incentives would be drastically curtailed, revisions to the Senate version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” ultimately kept the core tax credits intact.
- Chinese equipment penalties help U.S. manufacturers – new provisions impose excise taxes on solar projects using Chinese-made components—a subsidy in disguise for domestic manufacturers. Firms like First Solar and Sunrun have been boosted by this shift, as their reliance on U.S.-made tech shields them from these charges.
- Construction extensions and “safe harbor” relief – the final bill version extended deadlines for utility‑scale solar projects and eased completion requirements via “safe harbor” clauses. That helped secure eligibility for tax credits for ongoing projects, prompting Nextracker Inc. (Ticker: NXT) shares to jump.
- Structural demand tailwinds – underlying demand trends remain strong.
Big Tech with China Exposure
The bill increases scrutiny and tariffs on Chinese-made tech components, disadvantaging firms heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains.
Losers:
- Apple (Ticker: AAPL) and Tesla (Ticker: TSLA) for battery sourcing.
Higher Ed & Student Lending
The bill slashes funding for “DEI-focused” higher education programs and limits federal student loan expansion.
Losers: Education tech firms that rely on income-driven repayment plans or liberal debt forgiveness policies.
Come find another winning trade with us in our next live session.
Cutting Through the Noise for You,
Frank Gregory