I Named AKAM Hours Before the Deal

Hey Traders,

Market in a tailspin: that's the headline I keep expecting to see in the coming days.

It keeps not happening.

There are plenty of reasons the market should be falling apart: Iran, inflation and, most of all, the bond market. Over the last few weeks, yields (the interest rate the government pays to borrow) have gone from a slow climb to a full-on breakout.

It started with a rally in oil, and the FOMC (the Fed committee that sets interest rates) kept it going. Then it took off again because Treasury auctions (the government's regular sales of new bonds) have gone badly day after day.

Rates go higher, the cost of capital (what it costs a company to borrow or raise money) goes up, the risk-free rate (what you can earn in Treasurys without taking any risk) jumps, and every other return looks worse.

That's usually very bad for stocks.

High inflation and uncertainty around energy policy are pretty good reasons for a sell-off.

Yet, the market keeps warding off a major event, and it gets its pops when good news does hit. Just this past week, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the fund that tracks the 100 biggest Nasdaq stocks, touched a new high.

That's because the mega caps now make up such a huge piece of cap-weighted indexes (indexes where the biggest companies count the most) that they can pull the indexes higher kicking and screaming.

The driver, of course, is AI and AI spending.

These companies are tangled up in deals where one invests in another, and then the second agrees to buy products from the first. It's rampant.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) invests up to $5 billion in Anthropic. Anthropic agrees to buy up to two gigawatts of AMD chips, a deal one Wall Street analyst figures is worth about $27 billion to AMD over the next several years. Both companies get good news out of a deal where Peter pays Paul and Paul pays Peter right back.

Thursday morning on my State of the Market Show, I talked about which companies are set up to be huge beneficiaries of these circular deals. I specifically walked through Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and how it could be a big winner from the Anthropic IPO.

By pure chance, Thursday night Akamai and Anthropic announced that Anthropic will buy $11.6 billion of Akamai's services over seven years. In the fine print: with that order, Anthropic picked up warrants (the right to buy stock at a set price) on up to about 5 percent of Akamai.

I buy from you, you give me stock.

You buy from me, I give you stock.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

There's a huge amount of opportunity out there over the next 90 days as Anthropic goes public. I intend to grab that bull by the horns.

Tap this link to see how I'm navigating the Anthropic IPO to make money over the next 90 days.

Your only option,

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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