Yo Pit Crazies,
I want to show you something that didn't work.
Not because I enjoy it. But because a track record that only shows wins is a brochure, not a methodology.
Before you sit in on anything I do, you deserve the full picture.
The Win: Novo Nordisk
In early mid-November I told some members about Novo Nordisk (NVO), which I flagged using the same logic I use on all my picks: a beaten-down stock with improving earnings and growing institutional option activity.
Large funds were quietly building positions in long-dated calls a year or more out.
The stock ran sharply from the entry price. Shareholders were up about 27% per share by the January portfolio update.
The options I recommended? Up 115%.
That's the method working as designed.
That's the method working as designed.
In January 2026, I flagged Fiverr International (FVRR) as a trade. The setup looked right. The stock had made a 52-week low (its cheapest price in a year), bounced 10 percent, and was showing unusual accumulation in long-dated calls by institutions. Earnings were improving.
I called it at $22. Target was $34. Entry on the January 2027 calls was $1.85.
Then FVRR reported Q4 earnings in February and issued 2026 guidance for a revenue decline of up to 12 percent. The stock hit an all-time low of $10.25 the day of the report. It's trading around $12 now.
The calls are nearly worthless.
What the Miss Taught Me
The institutional activity I was tracking read correctly.
There was real money building in long-dated calls.
The bigger issue: I only enter stocks if they stay above the 10 percent recovery threshold. If a stock is diving short term, I wait until the momentum picks back up. I used to do that without thinking. Now I've built it in as a formal rule.
There was also one risk I underweighted: FVRR is an Israeli company, and my method doesn't filter for geopolitical exposure. When the Iran conflict started and the guidance came in weak, the algos sold everything Israeli-linked. The institutional activity was real. The risk was real too.
Why I'm Telling You All This
The approach I use was built from 30 years of reading how institutional money moves through the options market. First on the floor of the CBOE, now through the data.
It finds stocks where big money is quietly positioning before a move. It finds the other side when that money is absent or defensive. And sometimes it gets one wrong, and that helps me make the method better.
What it doesn't do is let you fly blind.
Join Hannah and me Thursday at 7 PM ET. I'll show you the full picture.
To Your Trading Success,
AG