By Andrew Giovinazzi
July 19, 2024
Yo Pit Crazies,
The Livestream for the OP Pro Traders Conference sign up is right here. 3 days of the best idea generation plus our keynote speaker. Mark has a way of picking keynote speakers that have fantastic ideas that are ahead of the cure.
If i have to say the trend changed lately it has. At the beginning of the week Joe Biden was staying in the race and DJT just escaped an assassination attempt. Stocks rallied because they figured that setup was a win for DJT and thus a win for stocks. Now with major Democrat leaders jumping into the retire Joe camp, traders got downright nervous.
That and the downright lackluster Tech earnings response so far and traders produced the first two big down days in 30 days. Nothing even comes close this last month. Usually big volatility moves need 3 adverse news stories to get VIX to 20 or more. Both of the current news trends are more of a wait and see:
Will Joe resign?
Will Big Tech earnings not meet expectations?
Is there a number #3 shoe to drop?
At this point the market has to wait for answers.
So how will it handle waiting?
Usually the stock market trades in a weak direction until the news comes out
Netflix Inc (Ticker: NFLX) made investors happy and the stock was up a bit post earnings. So far the Big Tech has been underwhelming as the stock prices are at all time high nose bleed levels.
Keep an eye on the implied volatility in VIX. If folks keep buying it, expect the market dust up to keep going.
5 day VIX with month sigma IVs on the bottom chart
I don’t think Joe will leave before the weekend so that will be a big maybe hanging over the market. Most of the Big Tech Earnings is not until the last week of July so fading a Friday rally should work in SPX. Fading a Friday rally has not worked well in 2024 but it should work today.
I will be sharing “How to get your juice for free” to all conference attendees, live and steaming. You do not want to miss it.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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