He Looked At Me Like I’d Insulted His Mother
Hey Traders, On May 18th, 2012, Bloomberg called me. They wanted me to come to their offices for an interview. That was a little strange, because I did most of my Bloomberg hits from the floor of the CME, not from their Chicago office. The office was a couple of blocks from ours, so I […]
Hopeful and Skeptical At the Same Time
Dear Trader, A few months ago a couple of our friends invited us to join them for dinner. Now these happen to be some of my favorite people in Austin, so the answer was a quick ‘yes.’ Like all friendships, there are friendship quirks. This couple happens to love going to the newest and hottest […]
I Was the Kid in the Chevy Commercial
Dear Trader, Little known fact: I was in two TV commercials when I was a kid. They were for a local radio station (Q101) for the morning show called ‘Murphy in the Morning.’ You can check one of them out at this link. I got paid $350 for each spot. My parents would give me […]
Boring is back and it just broke out
Hi Traders, I run vol-adjusted returns on three clocks, one day, five day and 30 day, and I don't put much weight on any single one of them. The sign across all three is what I'm actually reading. Red on the day and green on the month is usually a winner catching its breath. Red […]
A quick note before the fireworks
Hi everybody, it's Mark Sebastian, your only option. Before you fire up the grill this weekend, I wanted to send a quick note. Our country turns 250 years old, and that's a milestone worth pausing on. So from our whole team to you and yours, happy Fourth of July. I recorded a short message for […]
Apple Bled, Memory Feasted
Good morning everybody. Good afternoon to my friends on the East Coast. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) both beat on revenue Wednesday night. Both stocks got taken apart anyway. Alphabet finished Thursday down almost seven percent, Tesla down 14. Revenue was never the problem. Both companies posted negative free cash flow. Free cash flow is […]
Why Is Nobody Talking About This 0DTE Edge
Dear Trader, It was almost perfect timing. Just like in 2022, something I thought would never happen, happened. In 2022, I developed a solid approach to trading S&P 500 (SPX) on the day of expiration. At the time, options expired every Friday and that was IT. Then in February of 2022, the CBOE announced they'd […]
Why VIX Contango Changes Everything
What's up, Trader's Edge? Monday's session delivered a crystal-clear message about where we stand. The Iran war is over. Maybe not the way we want, but it is over for markets. Despite the naval blockade and all the brinksmanship, markets are done caring unless we see a full peace deal or a complete return to […]
The Oil-Stock Playbook Just Broke. Here’s What Replaced It
There has been a shift in the market that started on Thursday. Through Thursday, the formula for what the stock market was going to do was REALLY easy: If oil prices are going higher, then the S&P 500 is moving lower. If oil prices are moving lower, the S&P 500 is probably going to move […]
One Index Just Broke Its Month-Long Streak
What's up, Trader's Edge? Hope everybody had a wonderful Easter or a great Seder dinner over Passover. (To watch Monday's video replay, tap this link.) Monday brought something we haven't seen in over a month: the S&P 500 (SPY) closed above its 21-day moving average for the first time since February 26th. […]