Good News Doesn’t Matter If Nobody Believes It
Yo Pit Crazies, When I was a floor trader, we watched the tape, buy and sell volumes scrolling across Quotron screens. That tape told you what the market actually thought. Now there is a second tape: social media. And right now, the doom scroll is beating the ticker tape. This week’s economic news was bullish. […]
The Ride Nobody Pays For
Yo Pit Crazies, You sold a straddle two weeks before earnings. Two weeks later, the straddle is worth exactly what you sold it for. Not a penny less. You just took on all that risk for nothing. Meanwhile, the trader on the other side of that trade held options that barely lost a cent in […]
This Jobs Number Hits Different
Yo Pit Crazies, Rallying to all-time highs is usually a sign of celebration. Folks look at their 401(k)s and feel real happy. Retirement gets closer, and the Gen Xers are starting to notice what the Boomers are doing over there in happy retirement land. AI was the wave the Gen Xers got to sail into […]
Wall Street Is Buying Insurance on a Rally It Doesn’t Trust
Yo Pit Crazies, The S&P 500 is flirting with all-time highs. Normally, that puts the fear gauge to sleep. Instead, the VIX is sitting above 20, options desks are loaded with hedges, and the volatility of volatility index just swung 15 points in a single session. That move barely made the news. It should have. […]
Why traders keep getting blindsided by volatility
Yo Pit Crazies! Every few months, someone asks me if VIX is still relevant. The argument goes like this: 0DTE options have taken over, market makers now have “infinite gamma,” and the volatility index should be pinned to the floor. There’s just one problem with that theory. VIX hasn’t seen the bottom quartile of volatility […]
The Stock Market Has Lost Its Way
Yo Pit Crazies, Now this is not the first time stocks have gone down. We’re only 3.5 percent from all-time highs. But there is a shift happening and it’s a big one. In the first nine months of 2025, AI was good for everything. Remember Oracle Corp (ORCL) gapping up on spending $50 billion on […]
One Indicator Told You Everything Yesterday
Yo Pit Crazies, The nine-day VIX hit a 2026 high yesterday, spiking nearly two points above the regular VIX at the lows. Then it pulled all the way back to near even by the close. If you don’t know what that means, you’re missing the single best short-term fear gauge in the market. And yesterday […]
The market is confused, not reckless
Yo Pit Crazies! Remember those Top Gun days with planes blazing and the “Hard Top” limit on how low a pilot could fly? The new hard top is the opposite. It’s a ceiling on how high the market can go. Iceman tells Maverick he’s reckless. Is the market reckless right now? Not reckless. Confused. […]
The number 16 changed how I price trades
Yo Pit Crazies, A student asked me last week how I know if options are cheap or expensive. Not “the option looks expensive” based on gut feel. Actually cheap or expensive relative to what the stock is doing. The answer is the Rule of 16, and it’s the simplest volatility calculation you’ll ever learn. Take […]
I sold all my metals Friday
I dumped all my gold and silver positions Friday. Not at the top, but still at stupid prices. Laugh at me next week if I’m wrong, but I think this is the beginning of the end for the squeeze. President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman adds a hawkish voice inside […]