Approaching an All-Time High
BY MARK SEBASTIAN June 25, 2025 Hey Traders, The S&P 500 closed just below 6100 on another day of hard rallying. We are now less than 1% away from a new all time high in the S&P 500. The QQQ? Already Done: Meanwhile, Oil got totally smoked and is to pre-war levels: […]
One Sector is Running the Market Right Now
BY MARK SEBASTIAN June 20, 2025 Hey Traders, Oil continues to be our market tell. When it rallies, markets drop – when it drops, markets rally: It reminds me a LOT like how trading was in the summer of 2008. Oil is our gauge for how hot and cold things are in […]
NVDA Earnings vs Tariff News
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 30th, 2025 Hey Traders, Thursday went from Nothing Burger to maybe we really roll over and this gets fun and then right back to being a nothing burger. I snapped this picture after Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) earnings came out but then showing the move when the Tariffs were temporarily reversed […]
Why VIX Got Slammed
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 28, 2025 Hey Traders, Nice pop in the SPX yesterday. Once the index actually reached highs on Tuesday, it basically stopped moving. Might be the reason VIX got slammed so hard. You can see the move from Friday to Monday in the VIX futures curve … it was massive: […]
And Yet, a Selloff!
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 23, 2025 Hey Traders, The S&P 500 looked pretty good most of the day … until 3:30 ET. Then this happened: The market was giving us a little reminder it can move on a dime for little or no reason. This selloff was despite a decent bond auction and […]
No Good, Very Bad Bond Auction
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 22, 2025 Hey Traders, All it took was a really, really bad 20 year bond auction to set the market on fire. Let me know if you can tell when the results of the bond auction hit the tape: So what’s next? It’s kinda up to the bond market […]
Why Were We Down?
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 21, 2025 Hey Traders, Pretty inside day for the market. There was one opportunity to put on a trade here: At the bottom the S&P 500 was down 45 points and closed the day down 23. That was your only shot … so why were we down? More […]
Bonds May Give Stocks More Runway
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 20, 2025 Hey Traders, On the open, bonds looked like they were going to fall off a cliff. As one might expect, the S&P 500 was down over 1%. Instead of falling off a cliff, bonds exploded higher off, and TLT bounced hard off of 85. That’s indicative of a 5% […]
All Eyes on Bonds
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 19, 2025 Hey Traders, Nice Friday news drop by Moody’s. But as I write this markets are mostly brushing off the move. S&P 500 futures are down about .6% as I write this. I will be watching more closely to see what the bond market does. In 2011, when S&P downgraded […]
Why I’m Bullish into Friday
BY MARK SEBASTIAN May 7, 2025 Hey Traders, Overnight futures are up big because President Trump is sending our man Scott Bessent to meet with the Chinese. But there may be other reasons to be bullish into Friday. TLT found the floor: I told you yesterday bonds might have the FOMC painted into a corner. […]