Deliver Me a Good Name, Please

One of the best-run companies in the USA is Blackstone Inc (BX). Lately, though, all the private equity names got squeezed because Blue Owl Capital (OWL) had to suspend withdrawals for a while. As far as I can tell, BX does not have that problem.

Yet the stock went from $180 to $110. BX has now recovered 10 percent from one-year lows.

1-Year Chart

1-Year IV30 Chart with 20-Day Realized Volatility

Another thing to mention: implied volatility is coming down off the highs. Usually, as traders cash in puts, Implied Volatility (IV) drops and stock premiums drop with it. I am not saying BX goes back to $190 tomorrow.

But with SPX just ticking all-time highs, investors will look for bargains.

Fertilizer Stocks Are Hitting Hard Times

This really is a play on the continuation of the Iran conflict. Fertilizer stocks rallied hard on the Strait of Hormuz shutdown but are getting tattered now.

Mosaic Inc (MOS) is within 2 percent of 52-week lows. It is hard to believe the stock is doing so poorly, yet here we are. The sheriff in the Persian Gulf has changed the narrative, so I have to believe what did well when the worst was feared will do the opposite now.

MOS 1-Year Chart with 30 Day IV and 20-Day Realized

IV is still staying relatively high, so traders are not convinced the volatility is over.

I expect one-year lows here for MOS as the fast money crowd hits the exits.

To Your Trading Success,

AG

One stock is bouncing off the lows with IV cooling. The other is still priced for fireworks that have already ended.

Andrew's point is simple: when the fear trade stops being fearful, the bill comes due.

And when a well-run company gets dragged down by a peer's problem, the market usually sorts it out. The real question: what will the team pick on Monday?

Join the Ticker Highlight Show Premium before Monday at 10:30 AM ET to find out.

See you there,

Charles Delvalle

Managing Editor, Option Pit