Yo Pit Crazies,

 

The FOMC released its meeting minutes yesterday and gave the market exactly … nothing!

 

Traders are so convinced that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes that the S&P 500 bounced off 4300 again and simmered there after the close.

 

If the Fed released any clues as to what they were doing, they basically said:

 

• • Conditions are getting softer, economically speaking
  • The inflation rate is still too high

Gas for the car is cheap, but that is about it.

 

So, not enough good news out of the FOMC meeting minutes to power stocks higher.  It is likely they will stick to 75 basis point rises for the foreseeable future.

 

Is there a key we could find to unlock the next SPX level?

 

Inquiring minds want to know!

 

SPX Sigmas were up across the board today

 

Quite simply, the news was out but the volatility was up.

 

That, on balance, is not a good sign for SPX. The Fed news was underwhelming and should have driven volatility per term lower and not higher.

 

 

I will be hugely surprised if SPX is up today.

 

If anything, a calendar trade could work around 4200 SPX.  The short-term implied vols popped and they are most likely a sale.

 

4200 SPX is a viable target for the Aug.26 cycle. IV was not up enough to make me believe a big selloff is around the corner, just general weakness.

 

Understanding volatility is important. Some may even say it’s “key.”

 

If you want to make money, then want to hear more about it … jump into my live session tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

The Rundown

Big Money Flow

The volatility went sky high in Clarus Corp (Ticker: CLAR) and Mark Sebastian booked another great trade and 81% gain. It seems the meme folks are piling in now as he is getting out.

 

Vol Trade Club

I sold a SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) straddle today for 12% gain.  That sets me up to ride a VIX puts into Sept. expiration with a huge head start.

 

To Your Trading Success,

 

AG