CPI Down Again … What Now?
Hey There Income Hunter, After a third straight drop in the consumer price index, it was surprising that the S&P 500 couldn’t take out the key 4,000 strike yesterday – or even close above the 200-day moving average. Recall, the CPI report in November lifted SPX nearly 3.5%, and the December report elevated SPX to […]
Hot Read: Griff Recaps CPI
Headline December CPI fell .1% while core was up .3% month-over-month and both were exactly as expected. Year-over-year headline inflation rose 6.5% and the core rate was higher by 5.7%, with both decelerating from the 7.1% and 6% seen in November, respectively. Headline and Core CPI Y-O-Y Key Internal Figures Powell’s new obsession is the […]
CPI Will Fuel A Breakout
Hey There Income Hunter, So far the new year is off to a quiet start … But I’m calling for that to change after Thursday’s Consumer Price Index report. Investors and traders have become obsessed with a Fed pivot back to printing money and are banking on a declining trend in CPI. This month’s report […]
Daily Expiry Option Volume Explodes
Hey There Income Hunter, Zero days to expiry (0DTE) options traded over 1 million calls on Friday, which certainly added fuel to the rally. The 3890, 3895 and 3900 strikes traded nearly 250k contracts alone. Call volume was 59% of the total, which may be a record. The question is does this mean we head […]
Hope Is Not A Strategy
Hey There Income Hunter, Stocks whipsawed back and forth yesterday on an unemployment report that showed continued strength in jobs – but a deceleration in wages. Then, at 10 a.m. the ISM services index came in much weaker than expected. This was a shocker as the services index now joins the manufacturing index in […]
Trends to Watch This Week [Power Income]
Hey There Income Hunter, The new year begins with expectations for greater volatility. That’s due to JPMorgan’s massive 40,000-plus contract 3,835 short call position that expired at Dec. 30 OpEx. The 3,835 strike had pinned the market in a tight 3,775-3,875 trading range for weeks. Now, with a reset of option positioning, critical economic data […]
New Year Meltdown Signpost
Hey There Income Hunter, With ultra-low borrowing costs in the rearview mirror, we are beginning to see stress building in the credit market. This is the most important signpost to watch in 2023. This week, Bloomberg reported that distressed debt in the US grew more than 300% year-over-year. Obviously, the fastest pace of Fed tightening […]
Wave Goodbye to Liquidity
Hey There Income Hunter, We have reached the point in the Fed monetary tightening cycle where the drain on liquidity can have a more dramatic effect on markets. That sound you hear is the market’s lifeblood (liquidity) being sucked out by rapidly decreasing margin debt – the US Treasury Until now, Treasury […]
Do Not Miss This Trade Opportunity
Hey There Income Hunter, A major signal for high probability trading opportunities changes in cross-asset relationships that have stood the test of time. For instance, I am always analyzing the relationships between the US dollar, gold, and iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT). The relationship between those three may diverge from time […]
Powell Wins: The Bear is Back
Hey There Income Hunter, The Bears have come out of hibernation. Powell’s dot plots must have shaken them out of their slumber … NOT! It was hilarious to watch Powell defend future interest rate projections by his quants and suits at the Fed. They mean absolutely nothing. The Treasury interest […]