Commodity Capitulation: What Gives?
Hey There Income Hunter, There is nowhere to hide in a global growth slowdown. In early 2022, everyone who missed the massive commodities run of 2021 moved out of bonds and tech and into commodities. Unfortunately, it turned into a classic hot money flush. … In the last month we have seen […]
Banks Refuse to Add Risk
Hey There Income Hunter, The severity of the losses caused by higher interest rates across global markets has forced bond traders at the top banks to slash their risk. Some trading desks are even refusing to trade with customers if it means holding onto positions for more than a couple of days. […]
Fed Pivot Watchlist for this Week
Hey There Income Hunter, I hope everyone enjoyed the fireworks and cookouts over the long holiday weekend … Now it’s time to prepare for what should be the finale of an explosion in rate hikes that will result in a Fed pivot back to quantitative easing … The Fed has pushed the economy into recession […]
Financial Cracks in the System
Hey There Income Hunter, The signposts we have been talking about for months are flashing RED. We always talk about how critical it is to follow the bond markets, and this week provides a great example of that. Stocks and bonds have been trending in the same direction since the beginning of the year … […]
Q2 is History – Get Ready for a Summer Pivot!
Hey There Income Hunter, Now that Q2 is in the books, guess what the latest Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 is? -1%. Yes that is right folks, if correct, the US will officially be in a recession. (And I’m sure it’s AT LEAST that bad.) Now, the funny part is this, on Wednesday Jerome Powell […]
Recession Fears Will Trump Inflation in July
Hey There Income Hunter, This week’s weaker economic data triggered a parade of Wall Street banks coming out with warnings on earnings declines in Q2. As usual, the banks were way behind the curve on this since they always talk their book by forecasting high earnings and price targets on the stocks they […]
Goldman Admits Earnings Must Be Slashed
Hey There Income Hunter, We know Goldman Sachs is the Federal Reserve’s No. 1 pawn. The Fed, you’ll recall, used them early and often as a third-party hawkish voice. So, the question is why is Goldman coming out with messaging about slashing earnings now? One reason is that the Fed realizes it can’t get inflation […]
SPY May Repeat Early Q2 Drop
Hey There Income Hunter, I have been anticipating an extended rally to at least 400 in the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY). And I also view any end-of-quarter rally as an ideal opportunity to reset shorts. However, the internal market indicators from Friday are not supportive of a continuation higher. SPY […]
Bad News is Good News this Week
Hey There Income Hunter, This week we’re likely to see a continuation of the tug of war between high inflation and economic recession. Weak economic news and quarter-end buying could extend the S&P 500 rally from Friday. You can see in the sector snapshot below all sectors were up except one: Energy went through its […]
Powell Takes Insanity to New Level
Hey There Income Hunter, Well, another day at the insane asylum. J-Pow called for selling $2.5 to $3 trillion dollars worth of bonds into the market via the quantitative tightening (QT) facility. Meanwhile, the iShares 25+ Maturity Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is already down 40% since the pandemic hit in early March. Foreign investors have […]