BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
April 30th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
GDP declined by 0.3%, largely due to businesses across the U.S. stocking up on pre-tariff bargains from China and other countries we import goods from. If there was ever any doubt about the scale of U.S. imports, this data makes it clear. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in as expected.
The move was enough to send the VIX higher, reaching a four-day peak in volatility by early morning—only to pull back later in the session.
VIX is stubbornly staying at the bottom of Zone 4
Whenever the VIX moves out of one of the four quartiles (see video here), it often signals a shift in market sentiment. The VIX has hovered in Zone 4 (or above 24) for nearly a month. We briefly broke out of it yesterday, which was a welcome change. Up next are earnings from Meta Inc. (Ticker: META) and Microsoft Corp. (Ticker: MSFT), and as of now, the results are looking promising.
All of these indicators point to the beginning of an economic slowdown—one that appears to be part of the White House’s intended strategy.
If VIX can hold or drop below 24, I think the market is getting past the tariff issue. We are expecting deals and 1 or 2 will set the ship moving back in the right direction. That is SPY UP.
If the VIX can hold steady or dip below 24, it suggests the market may be moving beyond the tariff concerns. We’re expecting some trade deals, and even one or two could be enough to steer the market back on course—meaning SPY moves higher.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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