BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
April 29th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
Apple Inc. (Ticker: AAPL) and Amazon.com (Ticker: AMZN) are set to report earnings at the end of the week. If you think the tariff issues are behind us, think again. AMZN took a sharp hit when tariff costs were going to be added to goods. Despite having already driven many small brick-and-mortar retailers out of business, AMZN remains a go-to for shoppers simply because it’s what’s left. Even just the headline news was enough to send the stock tumbling ahead of earnings.
5 Day AMZN Chart
Looking at the earnings calendar, nothing this week has made a major impact. Netflix Inc (Ticker: NFLX) continues to fly. However, some of the data on the Economic Calendar is starting to raise concerns.
My take on the day: inventories are up, CC is down, GDP is in negative territory, and the JOLTS job openings are much lower than expected.
All of these indicators point to the beginning of an economic slowdown—one that appears to be part of the White House’s intended strategy.
Tariffs and Interest Rates are all that matter right now
A rally in the S&P 500 Index Trust (Ticker: SPY) to 560 is unlikely to be driven by earnings. Nearly every company reporting is offering vague or uncertain guidance for the second half of the year. A more telling indicator to watch is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT). If TLT rises and interest rates fall, it would suggest that traders are beginning to regain confidence in Uncle Sam. At the moment, however, confidence remains low across the board.
TLT 3 month charts
Tomorrow and Thursday, I’ll be covering the VIX Zone during our 10:30am State of the Market sessions, where I’ll break down the VIX metrics I find most relevant in today’s market environment.
Add that to your best calendar here.
The TLT and bonds returning to pre-April02 levels is a positive signal that there’s growing clarity around the tariff situation. While there’s still progress to be made, bond prices are showing a strong rebound from recent lows.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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