BY MARK SEBASTIAN
April 11, 2025
Hey Traders,
Tariffs are causing the market to go wild … or are they?
The answer is no – the selloff from Thursday was likely started by China raising tariffs.
But the real selling didn’t come from tariffs. It came from this:
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) is down 6 dollars since Monday and is only getting worse.
The entire interest rate complex is in flux right now, and many traders are nervous about the bond market.
The instability from Tuesday night into Wednesday spooked a lot of people. So if the bond market does break …
The S&P 500 will break along with it, and the QQQ even more so.
IWM is extremely sensitive to rates – watch the Russell 2000 closely.
Let’s Recap Yesterday’s Trade
We triple topped then failed. It really looked like we were trying to get to the gap level. We did not.
…Today’s Outlook
Let’s see what the bond market does overnight. If there is no panic, I am bullish. If not, I am liking the market to retest the lows
The VIX is really reactive right now – be aware.
Call Ted if you aren’t currently a member – 888 872 3301.
Your Only Option,
Mark Sebastian
Mark Sebastian
Founder & CEO, Option Pit
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