This indicator is flashing a crazy warning sign

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

April 2nd, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

 

Liberation Day is coming for trade in the USA, or at least that’s how it’s being viewed at the White House. Personally, I believe it will be more like Stock Market Liberation Day, where we’ll finally understand the situation, and from there, things can start moving forward.

 

If all this movement is giving you angst, try an Income Strategy that targets the best stock that week right here. I am at the point where I want to start selling puts again. I’ll be using put spreads, as that’s the income strategy I’m focusing on. I’ll share more details on this tomorrow.

 

I know Groundhog Day has come and gone but this chart of this week’s action is kind of nuts.  Stocks opened lower but have already rebounded three times. So, is the market going to break free on Liberation Day? I’ll explain why this matters. Stocks don’t seem eager to sell off; they keep attempting it, but there’s no follow-through.

If stocks don’t want to sell off, this indicator will tell me how high I think they might go….

 

VIX9D-VIX has only been this high 4x in the last 6 months

These moments included the Carry Bomb in August, the December Interest Rate Bloodbath, and the NVDA End of AI fiasco in January. Each time VIX9D-VIX reached this high and stocks stopped selling, we saw a rally in the S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) over the next week.

That’s how I’m positioned for a big move in a Two Way Trade. Typically, VIX also dipped into the low 16s shortly after but didn’t go any lower. Just a note to self.

 

To Your Trading Success,

 

AG

Andrew Giovinazzi

30-Year Trading Pro

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VIX 30 Day Chart

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

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About the Author

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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