BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
April 23, 2024
Tesla Inc (Ticker: TSLA) earnings come out after the close today and I don’t think they will make much difference. The sentiment is so bad with TSLA and the stock down $100 this year that it will take a miracle to move the needle. Elon is good at miracles but I think we selling down to around $100.
I thought TSLA would be a good AI play and I bought puts and stock earlier this year. All I am doing is rolling the puts down for money and have not made squat yet. If TSLA goes back to $180 I do ok. As much as I think TSLA will make bank selling robots to flip burgers we are not there yet.
Most chips stocks are down 25% to 50% from the highs. The correction in that space has already gone big. Plus a pullback was inevitable and now it has happened. We were waiting and now it has come to pass. What has not come to pass is earnings in these next 3 stocks.
That will move the needle
Stocks love earnings, volatility loves certainty
Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT), Meta Inc (Ticker: META) and Alphabet Inc (Ticker: GOOGL) are the ones that count. As much as I like TSLA as a company, the leaders need to make some dough. The biggest market cap stocks need to deliver. With sentiment so bad post-Middle East tensions, this will make the shorts cover quickly if the big boys deliver.
If the earnings are even halfway decent, IVs should get crushed in the broad market. That means some of my VIX puts will start to pay. Maybe the Proshares Ultra VIX short term futures ETF (Ticker: UVXY) puts will be ready for prime time.
The jump from 5000 SPX to 5100 SPX at a 16 VIX is two days. Things can change fast as the market Friday can look totally different from today. We touched on this at the Trading Desk. More on that tomorrow.
To Your Trading Success,
-AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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