VOZ and I found the cheapest implied vol on the map

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

March 14, 2024

Yo Pit Crazies,

 

Check out Weekly Profit Cycle for the PPI number tomorrow.  We got a trade put out today and currently have 9 wins in a row.

 

Speaking of winning, I was on Trade to Close with Olivia Voz Wednesday. I was showing her how low options premiums were in oil stocks.  She likes oil stocks higher so having some cheap calls around seem to fit the bill.

 

Below is Devon Energy Inc (Ticker: DVN).  PPI number today could give a little inflation spark.

2 year DVN energy chart

That makes oil prices go higher.

 

So what did I do in Trade to Close?

 

Well, what do you do in a bull market?

Right now volatility is around 90% in Nvidia Corp (Ticker; NVDA) estimating daily moves around 6% or $50 a day.  That is a huge number in a stock like that and NVDA is moving that much.  My logic here is if options are really cheap, say 23% IV, the stock only has to move 1.5% per day or thereabouts.

 

DVN was up .83 today so about 1.78%.  The calls that are 4.0% OTM are just .55 but until Apr19.  That is 5 weeks!  2 days move at a 16% volatility and those calls are near the money.  Now a stock can go down, but the inflation news is lighting a fire under oil stocks.  I think these calls make a low risk, high reward payout and the expiration time feels like forever.  I think they easily triple when the stock goes to $50.

 

A lot of time prices matter because the retail edge is when we pick an entry.  

 

Let’s see how it works out.


Check out Weekly Profit cycles if you want to learn to two-way trade for edge and stop caring where the market goes.

To Your Trading Success,

 

-AG

Andrew Giovinazzi

30-Year Trading Pro

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Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

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About the Author

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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