BY GREG MAGADINI
March 9, 2024
Hey Crypto Traders!
Bitcoin all-time highs are approaching (about $69k) and the best quote I heard all week was “selling all-time highs in Bitcoin seems like a bad move.”
Agreed! Market Max-Pain right now isn’t a Bitcoin pull-back, in my opinion.
Most people are not invested in Bitcoin (or any crypto) and watching this rally from the sidelines IS THE Max Pain.
I think we will continue higher!
The halving cycle still continues to be the BTC narrative. This is expected to occur in April of this year.
A supply issuance drop combined with one of the best performing ETFs in history is very bullish for this “fixed supply” asset.
Then mix in the MicroStrategy INDEX EFFECT and you really have compounding demand.
From a volatility perspective, it seems like overall volatility can move higher too.
(Volatility RV cone, 5yrs)
Looking at the Realized volatility cone of the past 5-years, we can see most RV is below median range.
Hedging volatility risk, at least somewhat, using call spreads is likely a smart move, given the ∆25 RR-Skew (as a % of ATM vol) is near 5-year highs.
(Bitcoin RR-Skew/ATM IV 60dte)
I will be bringing you more crypto levels, data and news absolutely free every week.
Talk soon,
-Greg Magadini
Greg Magadini
Director of Derivatives, Amberdata
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