BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
November 26, 2023
Yo Pit Crazies,
Check out our Black Friday Sale which ends today.
The headlines for this year were quite spectacular:
Rampant Inflation
Regional Bank Failures
8% mortgage rates
Mideast Conflict
AI mania
Magic Weight Loss Drugs
One thing that was constant was the Fed doing what they said they were going to do and raise rates until it was over the inflation rate. The second thing was Uncle Sam did not get the memo and cut spending which is causing concern about bond holders. There is a $400 billion war chest for green initiatives that are unspent. That is nearly half of the bail out for the GFC just 15 years ago.
The government has two exact opposite policies going at once. Go figure.
Job growth continues to benefit from a COVID recovery that was declared over this summer. Federal benefits to states will run dry in 2023 so folks there were not working will have to get back to it. That should fill a lot of the open jobs to create more economic growth and less inflation.
As it stands, SPX is on track to recover a good chunk of what it lost in 2022. Stocks are looking ahead but not quite to the lofty, post COVID 2022 days. So there is room to run. That means there are some bargains out there.
MLCO 1 Year chart with 1 day candles
Here are some trends ad ideas you might have missed
Here are my top opportunities for 2024:
In no particular order but bargains nonetheless on this bargain weekend.
Energy Select Sector SPDR (Ticker: XLE) and Energy Select SPDR Oil and Gas Exploration (TIcker: XOP) ETF’s are barely up this year and most of the Green initiatives in Europe have failed or are getting scaled back this last year. I own a high div producing stock Equinor ASA (Ticker: EQNR) that supplies Nat Gas to Europe.
Do not short the Mag 7, yet. Like the internet boom, the stocks that everybody uses every day are not going away and the backspread plays Mark and I have done in Trading Desk are the best ways to go on the ride. Don’t get in the way of anything going straight up.
None of the Recession worries have come to pass- I think that means commodity stocks like Vale SA (Ticker: VALE) and SPDR Metals and Mining (Ticker: XME) should do well. XME is unch for 2023 so there should be room for a rally.
AI is for real but should benefit Main Street businesses in 2024 and beyond. My simple answer for that is the Russell 2000 ETF (Ticker: IWM). IWM is flat for 2023.
These are a few bargains as I get ready for 2024. I hope you had a nice Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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CAPITOL GAINS: SMR Aug16 7 call closed for a 150% gain
DELTA STRIKE: VLY Mar15 8 puts closed for a 88% gain
PFE May17 26 calls closed for a 66% win
OP MENTORING: SPY Mar22/19 510 put calendars and 520 calls for 6.4% gain
OPTION SHOPPER: ERX Mar28 65 calls closed for a 90% gain