Risk Is In the Air

The Option Pit VIX Traffic Light Is Yellow: Volatility is likely to move wildly.

 

Thursday was a total rug-pull.

 

Up until 3 p.m. ET, it looked like the market was going to close on the highs.

 

I thought so … and so did every trader I talked to.

 

Then the market flushed:

 

 

Over the course of about 45 minutes, the S&P 500 tanked and ended up closing on the lows of the day.

 

But here is the thing…

 

There were smart people involved that knew this was coming.

 

At 3:02 p.m. a mystery vol trader known as “50 Cent” jumped in and bought VIX calls

 

 

50 Cent – not to be confused with the rapper (well, probably not) – is a credit fund manager who buys calls when he sees a ton of value in credit. He then hedges with VIX options.

 

After that, another bomb. This one I was alerted to courtesy of my friend Cem Karson …

 

George Soros bought S&P 500 futures 4050 puts right before the dump happened…

 

So, two huge players in the options business are saying we are at a near-term crossroads.

 

We are likely to open down today …

 

The question is, do we get a dip-and-rip or do we follow through?

 

They both are betting on the latter.

 

I’m looking to buy S&P 500 puts expiring on Monday afternoon and hedging it with UVIX puts or UVXY puts expiring on Friday.

 

Questions? Leave them in the comments below!

 

Your Only Option,

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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