My call: Anthropic trades near $2 trillion on its first day.

It would be about 43% above the $1.4 trillion valuation it’s fully subscribed at right now. 

And it’s a stunning turn from last week, when traders wondered if it would even hit $1 trillion.

The AI news had been that ugly. 

CoreWeave looked like it was in real trouble, Nvidia’s CEO was caught up in a reported spy scandal, and the Nasdaq was getting kicked in the teeth. 

Nobody had room to get excited about the biggest AI deal of the year.

Now they do, and a handful of the most hated AI stocks on the board have until Tuesday at midday to ride it. 

I’ll show you which names I’m watching, why the window slams shut Tuesday, and the one stock I refuse to fall in love with.

Fully Subscribed, And Then Some

The deal is expected to price on Wednesday, November 18, with the first trade the next day. The range on Anthropic’s shares right now is $70 to $78, and from what we’re hearing, they’re already subscribed at the top of it.

So they have two options. They can go out at that price, or they can raise the range. I think raising it is far more likely. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like $75 to $85. They like picking random numbers.

Either way, I’m almost certain the market pushes it near $2 trillion on day one, whatever price the bankers pick. You can write that to the bank.

Why The Hated Names Matter

Normally, an IPO this big builds excitement for weeks. The companies that do business with it get a run of attention going into the first trade.

That didn’t happen this time.

Now CoreWeave’s earnings came in at exactly the right moment, the range is looking better than anyone expected, and some of the most hated names in AI have room to get squeezed higher. 

I’m talking about names like Akamai, CoreWeave, Riot Platforms and Hut 8, all tied into the AI buildout. Even an AMD, an Intel or an Amazon can catch a little boost.

The Window Closes Tuesday

Timing matters on this one. I think the run can last from now until about the middle of the day Tuesday.

After that, the calendar gets tricky. Nvidia reports earnings after the close on Tuesday, November 17, and the options market is pricing in a move of about $12. It’s been a while since Nvidia made a move that blew past what the options priced in. This may be the one.

And don’t fall in love with CoreWeave. I’ve said it may be the Pets.com of the AI bubble. It’s getting a pop here, but until it breaks above about $64, I’m still on the lower highs and lower lows train.

What I’d do today: Put Akamai, CoreWeave, Riot Platforms and Hut 8 on your watchlist, and set an alarm for noon Eastern on Tuesday. When it goes off, you’re out, before Nvidia’s numbers hit that night.

If you want details on what I think about Anthropic and the biggest opportunity to profit from it, check this out. 

Your only option,

Mark Sebastian

P.S. Veterans Day had one more reason to celebrate in our family. My wife’s grandmother turned 100.

I lost my last grandparent in 2007, and not long after, I started dating my wife. Her grandmother told me, “You don’t have any grandparents. I’m your grandma now.” She’s been exactly that ever since. Happy 100th, Grandma!