A 244-Point Swing in One Day

Hi Shoppers,

Wow! What a crazy a$$ day! What a trading range!

The S&P 500 futures swung $244 from low to high.

In one day.

Up, then down, then back up again, bouncing right off our pitchfork support (a trendline tool that maps where buyers should step in) exactly where it was supposed to.

Folks, I hope you are watching my Chart of Week videos as Monday did exactly what I said it would.

We traded it for an 83 percent overnight win in Option Shopper.

So now what?

What is going on in the markets?

Three big forces are pulling this market in different directions, and the chart is showing the strain.

Start With Jobs

Friday's report came in hot. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 80,000 forecast, and unemployment held steady at 4.3 percent.

A labor market that strong ties the Fed's hands. Add a new Fed chair in Kevin Warsh to a still-hot economy, and you can forget about a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting. Traders are now betting the Fed sits still.

Look closer, though, and the report has cracks. Hiring is narrow, and people who lose a job are stuck looking longer than they have all year. That is the kind of mixed signal that keeps a market on edge.

Then there is the biggest IPO in history.

SpaceX (SPCX) debuts on the Nasdaq June 12 at $135 a share, a $1.77 trillion price tag, the largest stock debut ever recorded.

When that much money lines up for one name, it has to come from somewhere. That somewhere is the rest of your watch list, which is part of why everything else chopped around all day.

Andrew Giovinazzi is going to walk you through what to expect… and a cool way to play it. Just tap this link to add Thursday morning’s event to your calendar.

Now Read The Candle

All that confusion showed up today as a high-wave doji (a candle with long wicks on both ends and almost no body, the market's way of saying no one is in control).

A high-wave doji means exactly that: mass confusion. Neither the bulls nor the bears have taken charge.

The close is always more important than the intraday move. And this close settled nothing.

Here is the tiebreaker: The Consumer Price Index, our monthly read on inflation, lands tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern. Prices were already climbing at 3.8 percent a year, the hottest pace in nearly three years.

This number decides which way the deadlock breaks.

Watch our pitchfork. A clean break above the median line (the center line of that tool) says the bulls finally took the wheel. A rejection there says the sellers are not done.

Do not force a trade into the noise.

Let the market sort itself out that first hour after the CPI print. Then ride the trend, because we are going to move.

Thank You For Reading… See You Next Tuesday,

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

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About the Author

Licia Leslie

Licia Leslie

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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