Yo Pit Crazies,

Uncle Sam has a borrowing problem, and he’s paying through the nose for it.

If I ran up a tab like his, my bank would’ve cut me off years ago. Washington doesn’t get cut off, though. It just keeps rolling the debt at whatever rate the market demands, and lately the market’s demanded a lot.

Every trillion borrowed now costs north of $50 billion a year in interest, which is a ridiculous waste of money.

The good news is the market finally quit pushing rates higher. They’ve been sitting still for a couple of weeks, and when rates sit still, stocks that are rate sensitive can see some daylight.

Look below.

The first came off Sibyl, my idea-flow tool that flags when a name inside one of my themes hits a good price. I keep the themes in my head and Sibyl tells me when a stock finally deserves a trade. Most of that list still needs time, but this one’s getting close.

The second came off my bottom-of-the-basement scanner, and that’s a list no stock wants to make.

Let’s get into it…

Try This On

I need some new golf shoes. I’m not a good golfer, but I like it.

So Tiger’s hot new Sun Day Red kicks, with the Osprey running $175 a pair, might be in my wheelhouse.

Tiger Togs isn’t a listed company, though, so if I want a piece of the premium shoe trade, I’m looking at On Holding AG (ONON).

One reason Nike Inc. (NKE) is in the basement is competition, and On is a big part of it. Its shoes come in right under a premium brand like Sun Day Red. Sales grew 13.5% last quarter in Swiss francs, or almost 22% in constant currency. Ok, but not AI chip stock ok.

ONON went through 2026 like the treads wore off its sneakers. It started the year around $46, slid into the high $20s by September, and now it’s making a run on strong momentum. Open interest (OI) growth in the 2028 options is very strong, pushing ONON into the top 15 of all stocks traded with 2028 options.

The last two weeks have shown a very strong rally in the stock.

1-Year ONON chart

The guys who started the company are buying too. Co-founders Caspar Coppetti and Olivier Bernhard each picked up 65,000 shares around $30.67 on Aug. 14, right after the stock got smoked on a second-quarter sales miss. Then on Sept. 22, On announced its first-ever buyback, up to $1 billion through 2029, and the stock popped 13%.

On makes sneakers, and sneakers use oil for the plastic. They have some snazzy leather ones, but my guess is oil around $100 a barrel won’t last long. The big rout in ONON started when oil jumped. The stock went from $46 at the end of February to $34 at the end of March. Traders are trying to get ahead of oil coming back down. I’m using the jump in OI and the recent momentum to say ONON shares have room to run.

Don’t Book Here

It’s easy for me to dislike this stock. Somehow I get torched on booking fees for hotels when I travel to see my kids, or just about anywhere. And God forbid I have to undo something. It’s a total mess.

I can hear Hans Albrecht saying, “Agentic, agentic.” Building a trip-booking bot keeps getting easier, and at the very least, that creates competition for Booking Holdings (BKNG). That’s what the market thinks right now. On Sept. 23, reports that Meta’s new Muse agent can book a flight or a hotel without the traveler ever visiting Booking.com knocked the stock down 5% in a day.

Booking is the old Priceline.com, one of the early and successful internet stocks of the 1990s. It basically did away with travel agents, until travel agents started selling experiences. The market evolved. Now investors look like they’re evolving away from BKNG.

Of the stocks I track near their 52-week lows, BKNG is almost there. It closed at $157 on Oct. 5, less than 5% above its 52-week low of $150.14, and every new agentic booking story piles on more pressure. Revenue grew 8% last quarter because people kept traveling, but the stock’s doing terribly. Management guided third-quarter revenue growth down to 4% to 6%, and investors don’t believe the good times will last. They’ll get their next look on Oct. 27, when Booking reports.

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I can see BKNG settling into a low-growth multiple like so many other stocks and industries afraid of the AI beast.

1-Year BKNG

Going from $220 to $157 on growing revenue is no joke. BKNG trades around 17.5 times earnings right now. Most of these names are settling into the low teens, and at 14 times earnings, BKNG is a $125 stock. That could happen this year. I’m not booking this one.

So which one does the crew pick for Monday’s Ticker Highlight Show? Tap this link to join at whatever rate you want and get Monday’s pick as soon as it hits.

Hopefully this was helpful,

Andrew Giovinazzi